tribe/m

Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/17 by Elo

I thought it might be interesting to compare progress by an independent and respected think tank rating of political and civil rights improvement of the Arab Spring nations with Iraq -

www.freedomhouse.org/report/...011/iraq

rated 6 and 5 - not free

www.freedomhouse.org/report/...unisia-0

rated 4 and 3 (the lower score being the better) - partly free

note this is a dramatic improvement on just a year ago when Tunisia were ranked as badly as 5 and 7, and had been ranked 5 and 7 for many years.

The main reason for posting this is for those who have said the Arab Spring is achieving very little or even making things worse, clearly not so in Tunisia in just 12 months it has achieved much more than America and Britain have achieved in Iraq over 10 years.

Of course in Libya and Egypt, not to mention Syria there is not a significant recorded improvement yet by freedom house, but that could well change, certainly in Egypt and Libya, over the next few years, freedom house have already given Egypt an upward trend of improvement.

In blanace to this Ive got to say I think Afganistan is doing better than some make out in the media, and I think America may well be vindicated over this as time, another decade or so, goes by. This i base mostly on a recent comprehensive opinion polls where most Afghans were saying -

1 Conditions were improving

2 a big majority They thought the Afghan National Security force were fair and just

3 only a small minority have any sympathy for the Taliban.

asiafoundation.org/resource...urvey.pdf


It also seems from what i have been hearing if the international community is patient then over another 3 or 4 years the Afghan National Security force will be strong enough to do the job themselves, probably, this is the key factor and it looks likely there will be about 60 thousand US troops stay behind for support and training after the pull out date in two years.




Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Frozenstars 04/17 by Frozens...

Only time is going to tell, what impact the Arab Spring will have within their own borders. Given the higher education levels of the region the outlook can be seen with a more positive view.

Afghanistan on the other hand I suspect is going to sink back into the abyss of tribal politics and corruption. It will be only of time before, during or after NATO's support for its Government leaves?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/17 by Elo

I think Afghanistan might to some extent "sink back" but i was quite encouraged by them opinion polls and by an in-depth interview with a US general on this on Charlie Rose, who i do actually believe to some extent was being quite truthful, on how the training of the Afghan Security Force was going.

If Afghanistan just sinks back to a developing nation that has corruption and an imperfect democracy, lets say like Turkey 20 years ago, thats not so bad, because from that over the following decades they can develop out of that.

If however they sink right back to how they were in the 1990's when the were choping of womens heads in football stadiums to the cheers of the crowd and many of them lived in terror, then thats bad.

Just remember, as primitive as Afghanistan was before the Russian - American war of the 80s - it got A LOT worse from the 1970's - 1990s. So there is a chance it could return to the Afghanistan of the 1970s with a modernized if very imperfect political system.

I think on that one too, time will tell. But I do think the world is wise to at least give them a chance. It could quite easily be EITHER of them two.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/18 by

<I think Afghanistan might to some extent "sink back" but i was quite encouraged by them opinion polls and by an in-depth interview with a US general on this on Charlie Rose, who i do actually believe to some extent was being quite truthful, on how the training of the Afghan Security Force was going.>

Really? It's going to fall apart within months of us leaving. I'd bet money on it.

<If Afghanistan just sinks back to a developing nation that has corruption and an imperfect democracy, lets say like Turkey 20 years ago, thats not so bad, because from that over the following decades they can develop out of that.>

There's a 99% chance that it will fall into a quivery mass of sectarian & clan warfare, egged on by Iran, who will support groups that will work to take over the country in order to make Iran a satellite. I don't see how there's any other option. It's already almost impossible to hold together, and that's with 100+K American troops. When we're gone? Done. Done & Done.

<If however they sink right back to how they were in the 1990's when the were choping of womens heads in football stadiums to the cheers of the crowd and many of them lived in terror, then thats bad.>

Yes, Elo. That is bad.

<So there is a chance it could return to the Afghanistan of the 1970s with a modernized if very imperfect political system.>


Yeah, about a 1% chance.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/19 by Elo

<Yeah, about a 1% chance. >

Im not so sure, I give it around 50:50. The Afghan Security Force do seem to be getting stronger each year and its very significant that much more Afghans support it than the Taliban who are increasingly disliked by the Afghan people.

What people have to remember about Afghanistan is many people are fond of saying nobody has ever defeated the Afghanistan fighters, from the troops of the British empire - who beat just about everyone else in the world but lost against the Afghans, to the might of the USSR just about everyone gets beaten by the hard as nails Afghans because there not afraid to die.

But what people are forgetting is that the Afghan Security Force itself is made of them same tough Afgahan figthers and now they will be fighting in their eys to save their country.

I certainly would not give them a 99% chance of losing against the Taliban, which army is better funded with state of the art training and technology ?

50:50 at worst.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/19 by Jeff

<<Really? It's going to fall apart within months of us leaving. I'd bet money on it.

I will take your bet. $1,000?

<<It's already almost impossible to hold together, and that's with 100+K American troops. When we're gone? Done. Done & Done.

The US troops leave and the Taliban will have less credibility, they will no longer have the infidel US boogey man to be their foil.

<<Yeah, about a 1% chance.

What do you base your statistics on? Where did you get this number?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/19 by Jeff

Good points Elo!


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/19 by

<I certainly would not give them a 99% chance of losing against the Taliban>

Taliban or whichever group. Group X. How's that? There's NO WAY that they will survive without us. They are already broken. Iran's money's influence and Pakistan's influence will make sure that the current government either a) does what they are told - which means allowing them to do what they want outside of the capitol, or b) just taking over.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/19 by

<What do you base your statistics on? Where did you get this number?>

Because I can see the future. I'm a genius prognosticator.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/19 by Jeff

<<<I certainly would not give them a 99% chance of losing against the Taliban>

Taliban or whichever group. <<

The Taliban is the predominant and primary oppositional force in Afghanistan. Who could possibly be Group X?

<<There's NO WAY that they will survive without us.

That is certainly debateable.


This posting was deleted by Gerbil


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/19 by Jeff

<<Really? It's going to fall apart within months of us leaving. I'd bet money on it.

I will take your bet. $1,000?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/19 by

<The Taliban is the predominant and primary oppositional force in Afghanistan. Who could possibly be Group X?>

I don't know. I suggest that you move there and let us know.

<That is certainly debateable.>

Jeff, practically EVERYTHING is "debateable", which I DO understand is your forté. But I do hope that you understand that behind your love of debating the other side of everything, there are people there. Those that have lived in some degree of freedom in the last few years will surely NOT enjoy what will happen once we leave, much less perhaps even live through it. You debate. It's not fun or interesting.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/19 by

<I will take your bet. $1,000?>

Do you HAVE an extra $1,000?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/20 by Elo

<Iran's money's influence and Pakistan's influence will make sure that the current government either a) does what they are told - which means allowing them to do what they want outside of the capitol, or b) just taking over.>

its very doubtful that the governments in either Iran or Pakistan want the Taliban in.

<Though Iran may be helping the Taliban kill Americans, it would not want to see the Taliban return to power, experts say. And the Taliban doesn't like the idea of Iran gaining influence in western Afghanistan with the country's minority Hazara and Tajik communities, said Gary Sick, a former National Security Council official and a professor at Columbia University.

"They hate each other, but that doesn't mean they won't cooperate on a particular project," he said.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Middle East specialist at the CIA and senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, agrees that Iran doesn't want a replay of the chaos that followed the Taliban takeover in 1996. But he says Iran has much to gain if it could help push the Americans out.

"The distaste for the Americans being in Afghanistan easily exceeds whatever fears that the Iranians have about a post-American Afghanistan," Gerecht said.

Milani said Iran's leadership strategy may be to inflict "controlled and slow-bleeding" on the U.S. military.

"Iran wants America to bleed a bit, but it does not want the bleeding to be so severe that it would cause retaliation by the U.S., or it would jeopardize the overall situation in Afghanistan or create a serious friction with the (President Hamid) Karzai government," Milani said.

www.usatoday.com/news/worl...iban_N.htm

>

The situation with Pakistan is a little more confused but while for sure SOME elements of the ISI have been supporting the Taliban, it seems there in a minority, that there hedgeing the bets to some extent so that when America pull out Pakistan have strong ties with both sides and can influence Afghanistan more like that, but it seems that the majority in Pakistan DO NOT want the Taliban to take over.

<"We do not wish to see the Talibs dominate Afghanistan," he said. "On the contrary, we want to see a broad-based government that can end the civil war in that country, which has had a disastrous fallout for us. Of course the Talibs will be a key player in a post-Nato Afghanistan, which we feel is necessary for true peace to take place."


Well-placed observers in Islamabad suggest Pakistan's Afghan policy is undergoing a period of "evolution".
Having worked closely with Jihadi groups to oust Soviet forces from Afghanistan in the 1980s and then helped the Taliban to power, Pakistan's security forces have suffered huge losses in recent years as some militant groups turned against Islamabad.
That concern about violent blowback remains balanced, for now, with the knowledge that Taliban allies could still prove useful in negotiating a favourable deal in Afghanistan.


www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...stan.html

>

You also have note that thousands of Pakistani soliders and police have been killed by the Taliban and extremist in the North. While there may be some members of the ISI who are sympathetic to the Taliban, and a few government remembers also, it seems unlikely that they will back to the Taliban to have a full scale takeover becasue if they did Northern Pakistan could be further destabilized.

Not thats not a certainty, and it perhpas the weakest point in the whole thing when America pull out, but your idea that its got a 99% of falling apart seems to me WAY off the mark given above.


I would not bet $1,000 that its going to hold out because i think its about 50:50, though id say probably more 60:40 that it will hold, still to bet $1,000 on a chance of 60:40 doesnt seem a good bet.

But if you give me the absurd odds that your claiming are real - 99:1 - I will certainly take that bet ! So at the odds your are calming if you win I give you $1,000 but if I win you give me $99,000 ?? I have the spare $1,000 Andrew if you have the spare $99,000 ?

Are you willing to back he odds your claiming are real with a bet like that ? Maybe the 99K is a bit excessive, so we could take it down to a bet of $100 at odds of 99:1 if you like ? What you say Andrew, still believe in them kind of odds ?







Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/20 by Jeff

<<<The Taliban is the predominant and primary oppositional force in Afghanistan. Who could possibly be Group X?>

I don't know. I suggest that you move there and let us know. <<

An illogical response. You have a habit of saying things you can't back up, and then you try to divert attention away from your failure with either insults or irrelevant 'suggestions'.

<<Jeff, practically EVERYTHING is "debateable",

Wrong, everything is not debateable. For instance, do you think it is debateable that the earth is round? Or is that a 100% fact?

<<which I DO understand is your forté.

I think debate would be the forte' of everyone on this tribe being that this is exactly what we engage in on a daily basis, it is the entire point of this tribe.

<<But I do hope that you understand that behind your love of debating the other side of everything, there are people there.

When have I ever indicated that I am ignorign the human factor?

<<Those that have lived in some degree of freedom in the last few years will surely NOT enjoy what will happen once we leave

Except we don't know that your charicterization is what "will happen".

<<You debate. It's not fun or interesting.

Then why are you on a tribe dedicated to debate, a tribe you come to every day and engage in........debate?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/20 by Jeff

Yes.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/23 by Jeff

<<<The Taliban is the predominant and primary oppositional force in Afghanistan. Who could possibly be Group X?>

I don't know. I suggest that you move there and let us know. <<

An illogical response. You have a habit of saying things you can't back up, and then you try to divert attention away from your failure with either insults or irrelevant 'suggestions'.

<<Jeff, practically EVERYTHING is "debateable",

Wrong, everything is not debateable. For instance, do you think it is debateable that the earth is round? Or is that a 100% fact?

<<which I DO understand is your forté.

I think debate would be the forte' of everyone on this tribe being that this is exactly what we engage in on a daily basis, it is the entire point of this tribe.

<<But I do hope that you understand that behind your love of debating the other side of everything, there are people there.

When have I ever indicated that I am ignorign the human factor?

<<Those that have lived in some degree of freedom in the last few years will surely NOT enjoy what will happen once we leave

Except we don't know that your charicterization is what "will happen".

<<You debate. It's not fun or interesting.

Then why are you on a tribe dedicated to debate, a tribe you come to every day and engage in........debate?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/24 by Elo

"Some Good News from Afghanistan" -

www.foreignpolicy.com/article...hanistan


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/24 by Jeff

<<<<Those that have lived in some degree of freedom in the last few years will surely NOT enjoy what will happen once we leave

Except we don't know that your charicterization is what "will happen". <<

As a matter of fact, the US and Aghanistan just signed a deal whereby the US continues to provide monetary and logistical support to Afghanistan for 10 years after we pull out our combat troops. Which will provide added and extra support as the Afghanistan Govt. asserts their independence.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/24 by Jeff

That is exactly what I was speaking of! Any toughts Andrew?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/24 by

<"Some Good News from Afghanistan" ->

The only good news is that we're getting the hell out. Just yesterday, my galpal's brother saved a farmer's life, because he disobeyed an order and didn't open up on some guy who was suspicious on the side of the road with the .50cal. That's the kind of thing that we need to stop our military from having to do.

As for "Good News". I doubt it. That's all propaganda. It says that we'll still stay, it says that we can't chase anyone into Pakistan. It says all sorts of things, VERY LITTLE which will be able to survive this laughable agreement.

The guy turned out to be a farmer digging an irrigation ditch, by the way.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/24 by

More good news...

www.aljazeera.com/news/midd...59151.html


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/25 by Jeff

<<<"Some Good News from Afghanistan" ->

The only good news is that we're getting the hell out.>>

You yourself have indicated that just "getting the hell out" will cause the entire country to collapse back to the Taliban days. This agreement could well go a long ways toward preventing that from happening. Unless you would prefer the Taliban to come back in to power?

<<That's the kind of thing that we need to stop our military from having to do.

Of course, nobody has indicated otherwise.

<<As for "Good News". I doubt it. That's all propaganda.

It is a very real and substantive agreement.

<<VERY LITTLE which will be able to survive this laughable agreement.

Beyond the fact that you have overly simplified the agreement, and left out key points, what exactly does the above sentence mean?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/25 by

<You yourself have indicated that just "getting the hell out" will cause the entire country to collapse back to the Taliban days. This agreement could well go a long ways toward preventing that from happening. Unless you would prefer the Taliban to come back in to power?>

I'm 100% against us leaving. But, now that we are leaving, we need to get the fuck out as soon as possible. Fuck waiting 'till 2014. Nothing that we nor the Afghani 'government' can do will prepare Afghanistan from turning into an unmitigated clusterfuck and return to the stone ages. The Taliban or Group X will be in power there very quickly upon our exit. That's an absolute.

<Of course, nobody has indicated otherwise.>

Strawman. Never said anyone did.

<Beyond the fact that you have overly simplified the agreement, and left out key points, what exactly does the above sentence mean?>

Let's see...provisions like, oh...say, we can't attack any other country after this agreement goes into action? SO! That's just a license for the fucks to just attack our people and then just run over a ridge. They could do it all day. They could fire mortars from the Pakistan side, and we can't do shit. Also, we still have to stay there and 'help'. What the fuck? Why? Fuck'm. It's going to go bad - really, really bad, but let Europe figure it out. They will have to deal with the repercussions of it far before we will. Fuck it. We're out, so we'll just have to deal with that reality. Really, they want us gone and they want us to keep paying them, too. Fuck'm.

That said, it's a shame. The people - who started trusting us - now will clam up and the rest of our time there will be a waste. It's a shame, but there is no political will to stay. The public is stupidly & shortsighted about it, so that's that.



Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

<The Taliban or Group X will be in power there very quickly upon our exit. That's an absolute. >

Andrew you keep saying this but you give very little solid evidence to back up the claim that the Afghan National Security Force have a 99% chance of losing against the Taliban, especially with strong post 2014 American support, which as far as I can see both Democrats and Republicans are promising for decades to come.

There have been many developing countries over the last 40 years who have faced strong insurgencies that they havnt manged to stop entirely but have kept in check until over many years it finaly fizzled out. Indonesia is just one example of this.

Im not saying thats certain, i put success around 60%, but i think your 1% claim is ludicrous.

The biggest thing driving my SLIGHTLY optimistic view of Afghanistan is nobody is likely to have a better idea of how the last ten years has gone and is currently doing than the Afghan people, and nobody is likely to take it more seriously than them, and to be more truthful about it, not foreign correspondents, politicians and others. In the survey I opened this thread with we can see what THEY think. They Andrew are many thousands of eyes on the ground who are judging how this is going, with there own families futures at stake in this.

incidentally Indonesia is another Islamic country that is scoring pretty good on freedom and political tolerance recently. They do even slightly better than Turkey with a Freedom house ranking of 2 and 3, the same as India, though before the current Islamic party was in power 15 years ago they were scoring terrible.

www.freedomhouse.org/report/...ndonesia

Islam my not be the way to wearing bikini's on beaches are other forms of western liberlisation, but i see it that they have the right to live there lives in a way that they chose so long as its not infringing other peoples freedoms. Culture is someting which locals should chose, not Americans like you chose for them. Who knows Andrew, they might not like your lifestyle either.

It does however seem to be a path towards political freedom and economic growth for some countries.

Considering just how terrible on just about every count previous and current dictatorships have done in the Arab and Muslim world on human rights, economic development and political rights, i think thats as much as we can either ask or hope for at this stage in there histories.



Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/26 by Jeff

Andrew: I'm 100% against us leaving

Andrew: The only good news is that we're getting the hell out.

Your statements directly contradict each other being that you sid it was "good news" that we are leaving.

<<But, now that we are leaving, we need to get the fuck out as soon as possible.

Why do you want us to stay in Afghanistan? For how long? Open ended? Why are you against measures that may well keep the country from collapsing? You want an all in or all out approach, when reality is such that phasing out of Afghanistan may help keep the country from collapsing.

<<Let's see...provisions like, oh...say, we can't attack any other country after this agreement goes into action?

Show me specifically where the agreement disallows the US from ever attacking another country. I think you are confused....yet again.


This posting was deleted by Gerbil


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/26 by

<Andrew you keep saying this but you give very little solid evidence to back up the claim that the Afghan National Security Force have a 99% chance of losing against the Taliban>

Yes, Sir. That's my opinion. You will just have to accept that this is my opinion. I ain't going to debate my opinion just to do it.

<especially with strong post 2014 American support, which as far as I can see both Democrats and Republicans are promising for decades to come.>

Our remaining troops - if there will be many AT ALL outside of the capitol, will not be able to do ANYTHING to constrain the advancing Group(s) X.

<There have been many developing countries over the last 40 years who have faced strong insurgencies that they havnt manged to stop entirely but have kept in check until over many years it finaly fizzled out. Indonesia is just one example of this.>

Apples & Oranges. There's a BIG difference between Indonesia & Afghanistan. I won't even give that any time.

<Im not saying thats certain, i put success around 60%, but i think your 1% claim is ludicrous.>

Fine with me. You have a history of being a optimist. How often are you correct?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

Hey Jeff you might want to check out the story i just posted on the Muslim Brotherhood, not that I think there the kind of threat that people like Andrew think, but I think its good if they do not dominate in the future or there is pressure on them to change further, as the AKP changed somewhat in Turkey. Research has shown that Islamic parties normally do well in first elections when democracy arrives but there popularity quickly deteriorates when they are confronted with the hard realities of running a country, that seems to be already kicking in in Egypt. You can see more in the article I posted.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Me 04/26 by

<Your statements directly contradict each other being that you sid it was "good news" that we are leaving.>

Yes. Does that cause your mind to shudder all up in a huff? It must hurt.

<Why do you want us to stay in Afghanistan?>

Because, Iran is going to just walk in and make Afghanistan its personal training ground. Pakistan will be the conduit, and will control much of the country (if not all of it), in the end. The terrorists & fundies will have free rein to do all that their sick little black hearts want to do, and will be rewarded for their efforts. The ONLY thing that contains/constrains them is our troops.

<For how long? Open ended?>

Yes. The alternative is what's going to happen, which will be great destabilization, which will lead to greater violence around the world, and thus...someone will have to go back in and clean it up. Will it be us again? Europe? We'll see. Probably the country hit the hardest will be the one to go in. Hopefully, that'll not be us.

<Why are you against measures that may well keep the country from collapsing?>

Now that we have said that we're leaving, it's going to collapse. There's nothing that we can do in a year and a half. We should just pack it up and get all of our property out.

<ou want an all in or all out approach, when reality is such that phasing out of Afghanistan may help keep the country from collapsing.>

No. It won't.

<Show me specifically where the agreement disallows the US from ever attacking another country. I think you are confused....yet again.:>

Yes. Those idiots on NPR. Always making spurious claims and being "confused...yet again". What fucking IDIOTS! GOD!



Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

< How often are you correct? >

well considering that i was plugging the fact that the internet would change the Muslim world about two years ago in this tribe, citing many bloggers and reform groups growing around the region, and was ridiculed for saying that by Erik and Dustin, Id say my record is pretty good. Erik and Dustin predictably attacked the idea but most others just seemed to think it was some kind of fantasy of mine to be ignored. Not saying I saw exactly how the Arab Spring was going to happen, but i did say something of that kind was coming up, not many other people saw that coming.

But dont you want to offer me 99:1 odds on a bet that the Afghanistan Security Force will hold up ? Ill take them odds any day in any kind of bet you want ?


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

<Now that we have said that we're leaving, it's going to collapse. There's nothing that we can do in a year and a half. We should just pack it up and get all of our property out.>

Andrew your making it black and white when its not, the article i have posted makes it clear that its not going to be a complete pull out but a draw down. Everyone knows this now, not just Afghanistan and America but also Pakistan, Iran and the Taliban.

Your understanding of Pakistan and Irans intentions are also simplistic and your making there positions black and white too when the are anything but, if you read the articles i posted higher up you will see that. Iran hate the Taliban and vice verca, and Pakistan are hedging there beats but increasingly look like the really do not want the Taliban in who have already killed many thousands of there troops.

You are of course entitled to your opinion on this but your not being precise about the situation.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/26 by Jeff

<<Yes. Does that cause your mind to shudder all up in a huff? It must hurt.

You have an idiotic habit of trying to speak about my frame of mind, as to if I need professional help etc. Really it is a slimy way to sling shit as is your habit. Your words contradict each other, period.

<<<Why do you want us to stay in Afghanistan?>

Because, Iran is going to just walk in and make Afghanistan its personal training ground.>>

And you know this how? How can they "just walk in" if we are keeping support in place for another ten years? Sorry but, your words are illogical. In large part because you are advocating pulling out with no support, wich would lead directly to what you are fearful of from Iran. Illogical to say the least.

<< Pakistan will be the conduit, and will control much of the country (if not all of it), in the end.

You make a lot of definitave predictions about that which is ultimately unpredictable.

<<Now that we have said that we're leaving, it's going to collapse.

Bullshit. We said we were leaving Iraq and it did not collapse.

<<There's nothing that we can do in a year and a half. We should just pack it up and get all of our property out.

Except that we will be providing support for another ten years, not just a year and a half. We have to leave sometime, we can't stay indefinately as you are seemingly proposing. The best way is not to cut and run, but to phase out. The only logical solution to leaving, period.

<<<ou want an all in or all out approach, when reality is such that phasing out of Afghanistan may help keep the country from collapsing.>

No. It won't.<<

What a briliant analysis *dripping sarcasm*. Andrew says it won't, so his word is god......he has a tinfoil hat that allows him to see the future and speak with certainty about that which is anything but certain. LMAO!!

<<Yes. Those idiots on NPR. Always making spurious claims and being "confused...yet again". What fucking IDIOTS! GOD!

Show me. Show us the transcript. Because the simple fact is that the US would NEVER sign an agreement with a foreign nation that we can't ever engage in any military action against another nation as you have claimed. My guess is that you are once again VERY confused. Now, we may well have signed an agreement that we can't launch attacks from Afghanistan in to other nations, but that is quite a different agreement than what you indicated. My guess is you will once again try to blame me for your own errors being that you can't ever own up to them.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

<Because the simple fact is that the US would NEVER sign an agreement with a foreign nation that we can't ever engage in any military action against another nation as you have claimed.>

I hope this doesn't sound anti American but I think there would be a stronger chance of America signing a treaty that its people would never eat, your right Jeff that there is no chance on hell America would every sign up to anything like that.

I just wish Andrew would offer me the 99:1 odds he is touting on this in a bet, now that would be worth taking.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Jeff 04/26 by Jeff

<<I just wish Andrew would offer me the 99:1 odds he is touting on this in a bet, now that would be worth taking.

He said he would bet on it, but when I called his bluff and agreed to bet $1,000 he tucked tail.


Re: Arab Spring, Iraq and Afghanistan independently rated.

Elo 04/26 by Elo

yeah I noticed that, but i think its fair he offers the odds that he claims are real, 99:1, which would mean you would get $99 K back, after all they are the odds he is claiming.

Anyway it would be really fantastic if Afghanistan did actually settle down, for sure we will see that happen in our lifetime at least. I feel a lot is going to be accomplished in the world in the next 20-30 years, not least environmental challenges.