so a while ago elo and others wer esaying that the parliment will go to the progressives and i knew that it would be the fundimentalists and look what happened! i think that war with israel will be the result now when they first get rid of the peace treaty and then i dont know how long it will take but israel looks like they dont put up with anyone around them who is a danger to them so now it is just a count down to another conflict now with egypt.
I never said the parliament would go to progressives, that's a lie, show me that a post of mine.
What i said is over time, given time to organize they will do better.
The new parliament is not a fundamentalist in the sense that you mean like Iran or something like that. They are more like the AKP in Turkey.
You predicted there was going to be a bloody civil war and that hasn't happened.
There is no reason why the struggle for democracy and freedom in these countries should be trouble free but compared to the Wests struggle for freedom and democracy so far its been relatively trouble free. In the west it entailed huge civil wars, revolutions, lots of bloodshed and a few hundred years of political struggle.
Tunisia is doing well, Libya is doing quite well - when you compare it say to American occupied Iraq, considering the inherent instability that will come with such historical change.
Egypt has further to go yet with this revolution, but again when it took hundreds of years for things to change in the west its bizarre your expecting perfect change in these countries in just one year.
As usual you appear to be trying to justify Israel aggression here.
"I never said the parliament would go to progressives, that's a lie, show me that a post of mine. "
you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote, being that's what the MB got under elections run by Mubarak. You two also continued to repeat this despite me pointing out they couldn't run as the broitherhood, and elections under mubarek were hardly "free and fair"
"The new parliament is not a fundamentalist in the sense that you mean like Iran or something like that. They are more like the AKP in Turkey. "
actually the MB in Egypt is clearly farther to the right than the AKP (at least openly). A few months ago Erdogan gave a speech where he told egypt and the brotherhood not to fear secularism and that sent the brotherhood into complete hysterics. And it's rather clear the Salafists make the brotherhood look like liberal douche bags
"There is no reason why the struggle for democracy and freedom in these countries should be trouble free but compared to the Wests struggle for freedom and democracy so far its been relatively trouble free. In the west it entailed huge civil wars, revolutions, lots of bloodshed and a few hundred years of political struggle. "
No one is claiming it should be trouble free, what is being challenged is the claim of some progressive revolution
"Egypt has further to go yet with this revolution, but again when it took hundreds of years for things to change in the west its bizarre your expecting perfect change in these countries in just one year. "
correct me if I am wrong, but tandy and I have been making predictions based on traditional forces within the society continuing to dominate. You and Jeff, on the other hand, claimed a total upheaval of such...
<you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote,>
bullshit, i was following the polls like everyone else and i wasn't precisely sure what the election results would be, as most analyst werent, but used the polls as a guide, your claiming to have psyhic abilities now then are you, that you could have predicted exactly what the election results were six months ago ? thats bullshit too.
and when is this huge bloody civil war that Tandy was so confidently predicting going to happen ? Are you still predicting that Tandy or you recognize its bullshit now ?
<No one is claiming it should be trouble free, what is being challenged is the claim of some progressive revolution >
Tandy is, when there is trouble of any kind right away she talks as if that makes the revolution futile. And clearly this was IN PART a progressive revolution, certainly it was initiated by progressives, and again its ridiculous to expect something with as big as historical implications as this to play out fully in just one year.
Thats extremely short sighted to say the least. It took about 20 or 30 years for democracy to fully emerge in places like South America and Turkey. This is clearly the start of that process for these countries. Yet it seems like you two can barely see further than a year.
<actually the MB in Egypt is clearly farther to the right than the AKP (at least openly). A few months ago Erdogan gave a speech where he told egypt and the brotherhood not to fear secularism and that sent the brotherhood into complete hysterics. And it's rather clear the Salafists make the brotherhood look like liberal douche bags >
I actualy said several times a few months ago that Egypt is likely to be more Muslim conservative than Turkey but they are they are unlikely to be fundamentalist states like Iran or Saudi as you and Tandy were predicting six months ago.
You were predicting Muslim massacres of apostates were you not, and violent fundamentalism, when is all that going to start on a significant scale ?
And whatever happened to your predictions of a fundamentalist takeover in Libya ? You kept on posting stories of how they had been infiltrated by fundamentalists.
Considering many Muslim groups complained that they have been pushed out of teh National Transition Council that one is looking pretty redundant too.
"bullshit, i was following the polls like everyone else and i wasn't precisely sure what the election results would be, as most analyst werent, but used the polls as a guide, your claiming to have psyhic abilities now then are you, that you could have predicted exactly what the election results were six months ago ? thats bullshit too. "
I'll be happy to look it up again, if I need to, but when I had to source Jeff's statements on the matter, to prove his claims that I was lying were false, I saw the exact same statements from you
PS interpreting the best available evidence isn't a claim to psychic ability, but basic intelligence...
"and when is this huge bloody civil war that Tandy was so confidently predicting going to happen ? Are you still predicting that Tandy or you recognize its bullshit now ? "
Why would I need to account for something Tandy said?
"Tandy is, when there is trouble of any kind right away she talks as if that makes the revolution futile. And clearly this was IN PART a progressive revolution, certainly it was initiated by progressives, ***and again its ridiculous to expect something with as big as historical implications as this to play out fully in just one year.*** "
But that is exactly what you and jeff were predicting...
"Thats extremely short sighted to say the least. It took about 20 or 30 years for democracy to fully emerge in places like South America and Turkey. This is clearly the start of that process for these countries. Yet it seems like you two can barely see further than a year. "
1) there is actually no guarantee that the next step will inevitably lead to a democratic tradition in these states. In fact, there is very real danger that the exact opposite will happen
2) actually point out your false assumptions isn't making a claim to much, beyond those assumptions being faulty...
"I actualy said several times a few months ago that Egypt is likely to be more Muslim conservative than Turkey but they are they are unlikely to be fundamentalist states like Iran or Saudi as you and Tandy were predicting six months ago. "
1) I never made any such prediction, and have pointed such out since you have been claiming it (coincidentally, you have never shown where I made such a claim either, despite my requests to do so, and your habit of misreading, and attributing, things)
2) you just drew a comparison to the AKP, so I am unsure how you are now asserting you were claiming it was going to be more conservative. In fact, this just seems like another incident of you speaking out of both sides of your mouth
"You were predicting Muslim massacres of apostates were you not, and violent fundamentalism, when is all that going to start on a significant scale ? "
1) actually I was pointing to views of apostasy by the population to undermine your claim that they were moderate in their religious views...
2) never made any claims how such views would play out within egyption society, only a large majority openly endorse them...
"And whatever happened to your predictions of a fundamentalist takeover in Libya ? You kept on posting stories of how they had been infiltrated by fundamentalists. "
1) actually I was citing those stories to underline that claims of a progressive revolution, and that merely taking up arms against Qaddafi proved liberal leanings, were false. Claims I believe put forward by you and jeff.
2) what I predicted that there would be tension, possibly breaking out in violence, between liberal and secular forces with in the militias (but as one of many ideological splits between these forces), because others were claiming some grand unity between them. And as far as I am aware, that has proven correct
af.reuters.com/article/en...06F20120122
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16443441
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16655046
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...ry.html
"Considering many Muslim groups complained that they have been pushed out of teh National Transition Council that one is looking pretty redundant too. "
I'm not sure highlighting that islamic militias feel marginalized, and dont see the govt as legitimate, actually helps your argument...
<Why would I need to account for something Tandy said? >
what makes you think i can write things only intended for your consumption ? Tandy was the one who started this thread directly addressing me.
<1) I never made any such prediction, and have pointed such out since you have been claiming it >
you said the place was violent fundamentalist and into a fundamentalist shithole.
The fact that a Muslim country like Egypt has now a conservative Muslim government I dont see as an issue, what is relvant is that now they have the start of the democratic process and a new momentum to progressives trying to bring change, even though you pretend them progressives dont exist.
<But that is exactly what you and jeff were predicting... >
more bullshit - infact i can show you many posts of mine were i was saying this will need at least 10-20 years to fully play out, show me where i said it was all going to be played out in one year, your lying again.
<1) actually I was citing those stories to underline that claims of a progressive revolution, and that merely taking up arms against Qaddafi proved liberal leanings, were false.>
no, what you said is tht the National Transition Council was being infiltrated by Muslim Fundamentalist, clearly that has not happened - you were wrong.
Not that there was ever ant real evidence of that anyway, infact the teams sent over by Britain and America seemed to say otherwise.
Egypt has problems, thats inevitable to some extent. Its a bigger country with a more ingrained solid system that needs to be changed than in say Tunisia - where things with the Arab Spring are going pretty well, or Libya.
However my bottom line with this has always been that given time this is going to be give geunily historical change, leading to progressive change. We have already seen that to some extent but again to expect completion in one year for such a thing is crazy.
Just how quickly did you think progressive attitudes in Victorian Britain took to emerge for example ? At least a 100 years, well if Egypt does much of that in 10 - 20 years that will be a very fast change by historical standards.
What is highly probable, which you and Tandy seem in deep denial off - is that this is the dramatic start to that process. The bottom line of you and Tandy seems to be that this will be either inconsiquental or not lead to true progress.
I think your both going to be proven wrong on both of them counts.
"what makes you think i can write things only intended for your consumption ? "
Because you were explicitly addressing me in a post that was clearly directed at me...
"you said the place was violent fundamentalist and into a fundamentalist shithole. "
The people are violent fundamentalists and the place is likely to turn into a violent shit hole, unless the army continues to use the threat of force to prevent it. And?
"The fact that a Muslim country like Egypt has now a conservative Muslim government I dont see as an issue, what is relvant is that now they have the start of the democratic process and a new momentum to progressives trying to bring change, even though you pretend them progressives dont exist. "
1) In and of itself it isn't an issue, but when your population has the outlook of a bunch of backwards primitives it has a way of complicating things
2) democracy actually doesn't guarantee the empowerment of progressive elements. And, in fact, evidence in the region points to the exact opposite (progressives did horrible in Egypt, despite democratic elections)
"more bullshit - infact i can show you many posts of mine were i was saying this will need at least 10-20 years to fully play out, show me where i said it was all going to be played out in one year, your lying again. "
Yes, once the evidence became irrefutable to changed your position while trying to claim such was always your position.... But as I said, when I get some time, I pull up the remarks about the fundies only getting 20% of the vote
"no, what you said is tht the National Transition Council was being infiltrated by Muslim Fundamentalist, clearly that has not happened - you were wrong. "
I did? I might have pointed to incidents where I felt they were placating fundamentalists, like announcing sharia as the basis for future law, but I am unaware of anything that would actually discount that.
"Not that there was ever ant real evidence of that anyway, infact the teams sent over by Britain and America seemed to say otherwise. "
actually fundamentalist militias are still a very real concern, and you can find plenty or articles in the Libya thread detaling aggression being waged by them, against larger society
"However my bottom line with this has always been that given time this is going to be give geunily historical change, leading to progressive change. We have already seen that to some extent but again to expect completion in one year for such a thing is crazy."
right, eventually some progressive change will occur in society. But that isn't actually saying much, or discounting anything I wrote here
"Just how quickly did you think progressive attitudes in Victorian Britain took to emerge for example ? At least a 100 years, well if Egypt does much of that in 10 - 20 years that will be a very fast change by historical standards. "
again, it was you and Jeff predicting a progressive victory in the first election and attacking those that disagreed with you....
Don't fault me for pointing out your original arguments were silly and that you blatantly tried to shift your position (while claiming it was always your position)
"What is highly probable, which you and Tandy seem in deep denial off - is that this is the dramatic start to that process. The bottom line of you and Tandy seems to be that this will be either inconsiquental or not lead to true progress. "
you need to learn the difference between what is actually factual about something, and what people would like to see happen. Me pointing out that it's unlikely progressives will make much headway in the next few years isn't an endorsement for fundamentalism, it's pointing to the simple fact that Egypt is a fundamentalist society, regardless of what I want
--------As usual you appear to be trying to justify Israel aggression here.
hahaha. what are you talking about? its a mystery to me and you! hahaha
----------and when is this huge bloody civil war that Tandy was so confidently predicting going to happen ? Are you still predicting that Tandy or you recognize its bullshit now ?
hahaha. huge? when did I say huge? i said that the christians will at some point be so mistreated that it will start a civil war between them and the muslims. if you use your internet conection for something besides just proving you to be right you will see that there has been many christian egyptians saying the same thing as me. just good it! this new goverment which will move to the right not the left will start to marginalize christians and at some point something will happen that will cause there to be conflict between the two sides and they wont just stop. i sure hoe that it does not happen but if the christian egyptians think so then who should i believe? you or them?
--------Tandy is, when there is trouble of any kind right away she talks as if that makes the revolution futile.
hahaha. you just make up your mind and that is your reality. i have never said anything at all nor have i ever said anything that you make up in our head. you did though say that you were sure that there would be a progressive government. over and over. do you not remember that or are you so lost in this moments reality that you cant remember saying that for so long?
----------Thats extremely short sighted to say the least. It took about 20 or 30 years for democracy to fully emerge in places like South America and Turkey. This is clearly the start of that process for these countries. Yet it seems like you two can barely see further than a year.
i think that you do not remember at all your predictions for egypt. i remember being amazed when you went out 10 years and now you are going out 20 or 30 and you dont see this as very strange to your past arguments?
---------they are they are unlikely to be fundamentalist states like Iran or Saudi as you and Tandy were predicting six months ago.
i never said that. another made up reality.
@warren--------1) there is actually no guarantee that the next step will inevitably lead to a democratic tradition in these states. In fact, there is very real danger that the exact opposite will happen
i think that it will be democratic but the democracy of a very conservative muslim government. look at turkey which is getting more and more conservative. look at pakistan! is there one muslim dominated country that is not getting more conservative?
@elo----------even though you pretend them progressives dont exist.
hahaha. look at that! hahaha. he just makes stuff up!
--------more bullshit - infact i can show you many posts of mine were i was saying this will need at least 10-20 years to fully play out
yeah but that was after you said that immediately it would be progressive. do you really not remember saying that? how weird is that!
@warren--2) democracy actually doesn't guarantee the empowerment of progressive elements. And, in fact, evidence in the region points to the exact opposite (progressives did horrible in Egypt, despite democratic elections)
exactly! look where turkey is going. thats not getting more progressive is it? and pakistan? what country with lots of muslims is getting more progressive? look at france and england. their muslim population is not getting more progressive! its the opposite!
--------Yes, once the evidence became irrefutable to changed your position while trying to claim such was always your position.... But as I said, when I get some time, I pull up the remarks about the fundies only getting 20% of the vote
how about the ones where he said that the result will be a progressive government? find those too. it cant be hard since he made so many of these claims. i remember the first time that he started with the 10 year thing and i commuented that he was changing his timeline. now he says twenty or thirty years? hahaha.
----Me pointing out that it's unlikely progressives will make much headway in the next few years isn't an endorsement for fundamentalism, it's pointing to the simple fact that Egypt is a fundamentalist society, regardless of what I want
exactly! he takes my belief for what i think will happen and then says such things like i am excusing israeli violence. saying why i think that it is happening is not excusing it! god some people really are confused.
<< i said that the christians will at some point be so mistreated that it will start a civil war between them and the muslims.
That is a distortion of your original claim. You indicated months and months ago that Egypt was already in a civil war between Muslims and Christians.
<you need to learn the difference between what is actually factual about something, and what people would like to see happen. Me pointing out that it's unlikely progressives will make much headway in the next few years isn't an endorsement for fundamentalism, it's pointing to the simple fact that Egypt is a fundamentalist society, regardless of what I want >
you dont get it.
Your talking about the next few years, so what ? I said for a long time that this would take time, HISTORICAL change always does. Initially id talked about rapid change. Then i remember well when i started using a time frame of about 10-20 years, this was as far ago as last summer when it was all still in a state of flux, other times i said 7-15 years, and of course both of them are wild guesses. I remember well when Tandy mocked that, and said i thought you said there would be fast change. And i said to her in a historical context 10 - 20 years IS fast. Of course she didnt understand that. And i remember at the time posting several posts talking about this, how 10-20 years is fast change if it results in really profound change for a nation. You, Tandy, Jeff and I believe even Adam was using the tribe read that. That was way back as far as summer.
Also, almost from the start, i had said there would be "turbulence" and "speed bumps" there would be trouble of some kind, I seem to remember saying a lot of turbulence at times, and im talking about turbulence in a country of historical proportions, that all of this would not necessarily go smooth. But inspite of them problems the longer term trend would favor progressives. Of course you want to ignore that now.
So when you say the place is going to remain a Military dictatorship or a Muslim shit hole Dustin what time frame are you putting on that ??
If yoru talking the next few years, thats a bit meaningless, though even in that time frame i think its unlikely that either the military will get all its own way or that the MB will be that extreme in power, even the Salferist apparently are saying the want to honour Camp David, but a few years are nothing if we are talking about real historical change.
Now even for you to put a 5 or 10 year time frame on your prediction and i think your in really risky teritory then. If you say the place is going to be like that in 20 years i say your almost certainly wrong.
In China for example, everyone still talks about the "Chinese miracle" that there has been a spectacular and rapid transformation. I was well aware of that at least around 2003. there were people who seen that coming in the 90s, some of the most perceptive political aware people knew important change was occurring even in the 80's, but we can trace the start to around 1979 when Deng Xiaoping changed China's policy for good.
so even though this has been 20-30 years in progress, people talk about it as rapid profound historical change - because it is.
Something similar is going to happen in the Arab world, not identical, probably not quite so much about economics as China and more about politics and culture, but just as profound, just as world changing, just as historical.
You just quibble away at the day to day problems but are in deep denial of the profound changes that many at least think are probably going on, nobody of course can be certain.
What your like is like someone around 1990 saying China will always be a huge country full of just backward peasants picking rice. Granted China got off to a less dramatic change than in Egypt and the rest of the Arab spring.
This is my take on this, that 100, 200, even 300 years from now, the decades from 2011 - 2031 will be profoundly recongised still as far in the future as that, as one of the most important historical times in the regions history for many hundreds of years.
It will be seen in history books as a time of intense progress. And Spring of 2011 will be remembered as the clear start of that.
And thats whats important about whats going on. Thats the big story. And the big story you dont see. All you see is the details and now and your not seeing the important trends. You cant see the woods for the trees.
You dont see the future here you only see the past of violent fundamentalism, of extremism, of brutal dictatorship, yet you cant see the future and you cant see the changes of now. Sure some of them things are still going on BUT there in a state of change.
So you talk about this election. And you talk about the military.
Like everything will change in just a year. There has been a lot of change in the last year and them changes will allow other changes to take place.
In the square today, many of the Muslim Brotherhood were booed for treating the turn out as a celebration, especially from family members of martyrs who had been killed. To most in the square it was still a protest.
Time is going to put a lot of pressure on the MB. There a lot of people in Egypt want to see things get better. There will be a very short honeymoon period for the MB.
That that pressure may either change them or empower more new progressive parties. Its not that important which and actually both will happen.
Whats more its extremely likely that peopls perception of what Islam is also
The Military ARE more of a threat. I will give you that you got that right, even though you got the fundamentalism threat in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt wrong.
But i think its extremely unlikely the Miltary can resits change for long, already in just a year they have had to give way on lots of issues. When you see the strugle the military put up in Turkey this last 20 to 30 years, thats very fast so far.
Lastly, in terms of the three main Arab Spring countries, Egypt, Tunisa, Libya, its notable how your focusing on the one which has hit the most problems at the moment. Of course when it was geting hard in Libya you focused on that.
Ive heard things are going very well in Tunisia, i need to look into that more. I heard a group of three experts saying how suprsingly well the transition government there had handled things, both ecomicaly and politically.
Youll ignore that of course, if its going well.
You see i dont ignore the problems. I expected them - turbulence, i said that from the start. Sure i didnt get everything spot on, but i still say the bottom line on this, that its profound, historical change that will be progressive change as its outcome is what is happening here.
If you remember, after this tribe going quite on Egypt for awhile, a few months back it was me who first posted the story on the Army killing the copts and all the bad stuff about that. Because i was concerned about it, disaponited. But of course there will be setp backs to this. Like i could ever imagine you posting a story on an aspect of the Arab Spring going well.
And yes my understanding of this is evolving as it moves on, but not in the way your trying to make out. Im learning about this, as most intelligent people are, its a learning curve, something new. As one of the New York times best correspondents on Charlie Rose said about this, when you see elephants fly, dont talk, take notes.
<Granted China got off to a less dramatic change than in Egypt>
China got of to a less dramatic START.
<Whats more its extremely likely that peopls perception of what Islam is also >
i missed that bit, peoples perception of what Islam is there will also change a lot over the next few decades, in fact one of the worlds experts on the subject toured the Area after the Arab spring and wrote a book on it, according to here, its already started with great vigor, she said just about everyone in the region is now debating about what Islam is supposed to be as regards to politics.
"Your talking about the next few years, so what ? I said for a long time that this would take time, HISTORICAL change always does. Initially id talked about rapid change. Then i remember well when i started using a time frame of about 10-20 years"
Nope, you originally claimed the first election, then as evidence kept mounting on the nature of the people you slowly inched you assessment back.
feb last year you wrote: "1 Experts estimate the Brotherhood has only between 15-30% support of the people.
2 That is with opposition groups being banned, imprisoned, criminalised and having no time to openly organise and publicise themselves. This is NO LONGER THE CASE NOW.
everything has changed for opposition parties now, and they have everything to fight for in egypt now.
3 Even if the Muslim Brotherhood got in - and that looks a VERY big maybe, if you estimate there support to be about 25% only, then undoubtedly if they were to impose some kind of shari on the public they would have to consider the views of the other 75% of the public who do not support them. "
"The Muslim Brotherhood has obviously a very large, young, educated, internet savvy secluarlish bunch to deal with now who initiated this revolution - and evidently the are VERY dynamic.
It was them, not the Muslim Brotherhood, who were the hard core in making this revolution happen. Obviously they are a forced to be reckoned with. "
uspolitics.tribe.net/thread/...be40dc72
this was after I pointed out that though the protests were initiated by progressive elements, it was sustained, and owed it's survival to, various Islamist and fundamentalist groups
this was after I pointed out, numerous times, that elections under Mubarak were not free and fair, and that the brotherhood couldn't actually run candidates
this was after I cited numerous examples on why egypt was a fundamentalist society.
So as we can see, you have a clear habit of ignoring evidence that goes against your beliefs, and when those beliefs are shown to be false, you adopt new beliefs and try to claim those were always your beliefs
PS elo, no one wants to read an essay that has absolutely no relevant content to it and consists of you belly aching over bullshit
"i missed that bit, peoples perception of what Islam is there will also change a lot over the next few decades, in fact one of the worlds experts on the subject toured the Area after the Arab spring and wrote a book on it, according to here, its already started with great vigor, she said just about everyone in the region is now debating about what Islam is supposed to be as regards to politics."
that debate has been going on since the establishment of modern states in the region
Just what exactly are you claiming Dustin, that back in Feb last year, that you knew precisely the exact election results down to the exact percentile ? Wow, you must be one of the only people in the world who knew that back then.
You cant see how immature your being here ? no ?
<"1 Experts estimate the Brotherhood has only between 15-30% support of the people. >
right, and that would be exactly what experts said at the time. Whats your point here Dustin, that your more expert than the experts ? Is that what your trying to say ?
<So as we can see, you have a clear habit of ignoring evidence that goes against your beliefs, >
you mean by posting what independent experts are estimating election results are going to be in 6 months time, Im ignoring some kind of evidence ? What evidence might that have been that i overlooked, Dustin's genius or Dustin's psychic abilities ?
<PS elo, no one wants to read an essay that has absolutely no relevant content to it and consists of you belly aching over bullshit >
i guess analysis of whats going on and putting it in context of the next decade or two is a bit much for you, as I say historical change is a concept you seem to have problems with, youd rather play see who guessed the exact results six month ago. thats not really my thing either.
oh and you never said how long you think the place will remain a Dictorship or " fundamentalism shit hole" for ? 10 years ? 20 ? Egypt is going places and it doesn't need you to get there mate, give it up.
<that debate has been going on since the establishment of modern states in the region>
clearly not in the way it has been going on since the Arab Spring, according to the clear message of one of the worlds leading experts on the matter, but its no surprise you wont acknowledge that or don't understand it, or its importance...
------I never said the parliament would go to progressives, that's a lie, show me that a post of mine.
i dont think that you are connected to reality. you really want to say that now?
----------You predicted there was going to be a bloody civil war and that hasn't happened.
not yet!
---------Libya is doing quite well
are you crazy? there is torture and the international organizations are leaving because its so dangerous. this is quite well to you/
--------As usual you appear to be trying to justify Israel aggression here.
do you even understand what you are saying? how in the world does this have anything to do with israel? no one has mentioned israel except to say thati think that this will cause war. where do you come up with this stuff?
<<you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote, being that's what the MB got under elections run by Mubarak.
You are once again conflating my previous position with that of Elos. But ultimately it does not matter, deal with current reality rather than trying to relitigate positions in the past, positions that have grown and evolved as Egypt has realized the fruition of a free and fair election.
<<I'll be happy to look it up again, if I need to, but when I had to source Jeff's statements on the matter, to prove his claims that I was lying were false,
What exactly did I claim you were lying about? Link please.
-------and when is this huge bloody civil war that Tandy was so confidently predicting going to happen ? Are you still predicting that Tandy or you recognize its bullshit now ?
why are you pulling a newt and attacking me instead of answering the question. i still think that this is going to go bad.
----------Tandy is, when there is trouble of any kind right away she talks as if that makes the revolution futile.
i never said futile. i said it will be worse if and when it turns into war.
--------its ridiculous to expect something with as big as historical implications as this to play out fully in just one year.
who ever said that? why do you attribute thinks like this to us and then blame us for saying them?
---------they are unlikely to be fundamentalist states like Iran or Saudi as you and Tandy were predicting six months ago.
hahaha. i never said that. i said that it will be closer to iran than turkey.
----------You were predicting Muslim massacres of apostates were you not,
hahaha. no. he said just connected the amount of people that were for killing these people. oh my god. he has told you this like twenty times.
-------And whatever happened to your predictions of a fundamentalist takeover in Libya ?
give it time.
<<Because you were explicitly addressing me in a post that was clearly directed at me...
Actually he was explicitly addressing Tandy being that he called her out by name.
<<-------and when is this huge bloody civil war that Tandy was so confidently predicting going to happen ? Are you still predicting that Tandy or you recognize its bullshit now ?
why are you pulling a newt and attacking me instead of answering the question.<<
Are either you or Dustin attacking myself and Elo by bringing up the 20% issue? Of course not, subsequently this quesiton of you is not a personal attack either. Are you now admitting that you were mistaken when you said an Egyptian civil war ALREADY started between Christians and Muslims?
<<i never said futile. i said it will be worse if and when it turns into war.
So now it is "if and when"?
"You are once again conflating my previous position with that of Elos"
actually I am not
uspolitics.tribe.net/thread/...b6133e39
"But ultimately it does not matter, deal with current reality rather than trying to relitigate positions in the past, positions that have grown and evolved as Egypt has realized the fruition of a free and fair election."
uhh, the only reason anyone is bringing them up is because you both have tried to deny holding such a position, and when these points were being discussed, you two would attack people for disagreeing with you. A trend that continues.
So I am trying to point out maybe you two need to settle down and maybe try listening to an opposing point of view, as opposed to going into hysterics
"clearly not in the way it has been going on since the Arab Spring, according to the clear message of one of the worlds leading experts on the matter, but its no surprise you wont acknowledge that or don't understand it, or its importance... "
1) what is exactly different about it now, as opposed to when the ottoman empire was reconciled to the history books, or when Jamal al-Din al-Afghani encouraged constitutionalism?
2) why instead of actually discussing the topic with me, do you get all buthurt?
"right, and that would be exactly what experts said at the time. Whats your point here Dustin, that your more expert than the experts ? Is that what your trying to say ? "
1) *some* experts. Others disagreed.
2) I never questioned these experts based on some supposed expertise on my end, but evidence that clearly conflicted with their interpretations
3) experts are not above questioning
"you mean by posting what independent experts are estimating election results are going to be in 6 months time, Im ignoring some kind of evidence ? What evidence might that have been that i overlooked, Dustin's genius or Dustin's psychic abilities ? "
I listed it in the very post you are quoting here
"oh and you never said how long you think the place will remain a Dictorship or " fundamentalism shit hole" for ? 10 years ? 20 ? Egypt is going places and it doesn't need you to get there mate, give it up. "
I'm not going to give you an answer because I simply don't know, but some long term existence isn't some impossibility
<<uhh, the only reason anyone is bringing them up is because you both have tried to deny holding such a position
A flat out falsehood being that I never denied my prior 20% assertions.
<<and when these points were being discussed, you two would attack people for disagreeing with you.
Yet another blatant falsehood, disagreeing with your position does not = an attack Dustin.
<<A trend that continues.
*sigh*.....and the falsehoods continue being that I am not attacking you for disagreeing with me.
<<as opposed to going into hysterics
Yet again with the exaggerations. Disagreeing with you in a calm and straightforward manner does not = hysterics. How about if you stop commenting on what you think is my personal mental state of mind, it is nothing more than a backhanded personal attack and has no place in this discussion. Discuss the subject and not the person please.
<<uhh, the only reason anyone is bringing them up is because you both have tried to deny holding such a position
FALSE: I never denied my prior 20% assertion, and have in fact indicated repeatedly that I was mistaken.
<<and when these points were being discussed, you two would attack people for disagreeing with you.
FALSE: I did not engage in personal attacks because you disagreed with me.
<A trend that continues.
FALSE: I am in no way currently attacking you for disagreeing with me.
<<as opposed to going into hysterics
FALSE: Disagreeing with you does not = hysterics. How about if you stop with the backhanded personal attacs here Dustin. Please do focus on the subject and not the person.
Tribe.net is wanky today, sorry for the double post.
-------"Tandy is, when there is trouble of any kind right away she talks as if that makes the revolution futile.
hahaha. how can he always just make up his own mind about what i believe? hahaha
--------1) there is actually no guarantee that the next step will inevitably lead to a democratic tradition in these states. In fact, there is very real danger that the exact opposite will happen
especially since places like turkey are going more fundimentalist! why expct any different? because he wants to believe it i guess.
@elo..........what is relvant is that now they have the start of the democratic process and a new momentum to progressives trying to bring change,
where is this momentum? just their existance is not a sign of momentum. dont you understand that now that the goverment has turned fundimentalist that is actuallymomentum against what you want to see happening?
--------infact i can show you many posts of mine were i was saying this will need at least 10-20 years to fully play out,
not in the first weeks of the discussions here about that. of course you can show that but that was weeks later.
<<especially since places like turkey are going more fundimentalist!
Many countries, our own included, vaccilates between conservative and liberal. Turkey is not different in that regard, with their current brand of conservatism far to the left of the views of the Salifists and even the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt becoming like Turkey, even a more conservative Turkey, would be an incredibly positive step for the region.
<<not in the first weeks of the discussions
The first weeks of discussions started what? 10 months ago? Let's deal with current reality.
Correction, the first few weeks of discussion was going on a YEAR ago.
<<especially since places like turkey are going more fundimentalist!
Tandy, the MB share of the vote in parliamentary elections was approximately 50%. They recieved less than 25% in the presidential elections. That is a considerable change in a very short period of time. What say you to that?
Now you're diggin up five month old posts to try to call out a member that hasn't posted in two months, just to drive a thread off the front page? Wow dude.
uspolitics.tribe.net/thread/...d01e4aff
Our discussions about the Arab spring and Egypt are long term and on-going, it is absolutely appropriate to juxtoposition the MB share of the vote during Parliamentary elections against their share of the vote during the presidential elections. Sorry bud, but not everything is a conspiracy. Now please take your trolling elswhere
<so a while ago elo and others wer esaying that the parliment will go to the progressives and i knew that it would be the fundimentalists and look what happened!>
Goddamned if she was not right. I wish that I was here to opine when she was.
<i think that war with israel will be the result now when they first get rid of the peace treaty and then i dont know how long it will take but israel looks like they dont put up with anyone around them who is a danger to them so now it is just a count down to another conflict now with egypt.>
I hope not. Moreso - I think that the Egyptian military would not allow that to happen because they'd lose. They know it, and why go that way, ESPECIALLY when Iran is a bigger threat to Egypt than is Israel? No, I don't think that there will be a war anytime soon.
<you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote, being that's what the MB got under elections run by Mubarak. You two also continued to repeat this despite me pointing out they couldn't run as the broitherhood, and elections under mubarek were hardly "free and fair">
Yup. Shocking. Just SHOCKING!
Wow. This is a bid ol' threat. I sure am not getting into all of this, but I'm glad to see where you guys were on this point long ago.
<Many countries, our own included, vaccilates between conservative and liberal.>
Jeff, you are comparing apples & oranges. Islam, once it heads into the direction towards the more conservative is incompatible with liberal society, and in Turkey, they are moving towards making abortion illegal. It's just the natural progression. I'm not aware of any society where they LOST control.
<Now you're diggin up five month old posts to try to call out a member that hasn't posted in two months, just to drive a thread off the front page? Wow dude.>
He'll argue with a statue and insist that the statue's lack of response means that he's right.
<<you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote, being that's what the MB got under elections run by Mubarak
As you are conveniently forgetting Andrew, I have admitted my error regarding parliamentary elections. In other words, I don't hide my head in the sand when I make mistakes. I had not really taken the organizational advantage of the MB in to account, a factor that I have since added to the equation. And in that equation I predicted that the share of votes the MB recieved would shrink as these new parties closed the organizational ability gap. And that is exactly what happened, they went from around 50% of the vote to less than 25% of the vote, a significant change regardless of your attempts to dismiss that which is inconvenient to your narrative.
<<Jeff, you are comparing apples & oranges. Islam, once it heads into the direction towards the more conservative is incompatible with liberal society, and in Turkey, they are moving towards making abortion illegal.
Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative. In addition, we have conservatives who may yet win power in this country trying to make abortion illegal right here in the US. Romney wants to push for a constitutional amendement making abortion illegal. So please, let go of this false outrage about Turkey.
<<He'll argue with a statue and insist that the statue's lack of response means that he's right.
If you make claims that can't be found anywhere in the media, you can't provide backup for said claims, then most likely you pulled said claim out of your ass. You have a penchent for making shit up to support your arguments, and then hide your head in the sand when called out on your B.S. It is standard to support your claims in a debate bub, so please don't pretend it is some strange request.
<<you and Jeff claimed that the fundamentalists would get no more than 20% of the vote, being that's what the MB got under elections run by Mubarak
As you are conveniently forgetting Andrew, I have admitted my error regarding parliamentary elections. In other words, I don't hide my head in the sand when I make mistakes. I had not really taken the organizational advantage of the MB in to account, a factor that I have since added to the equation. And in that equation I predicted that the share of votes the MB recieved would shrink as these new parties closed the organizational ability gap. And that is exactly what happened, they went from around 50% of the vote to less than 25% of the vote, a significant change regardless of your attempts to dismiss that which is inconvenient to your narrative.
<<Jeff, you are comparing apples & oranges. Islam, once it heads into the direction towards the more conservative is incompatible with liberal society, and in Turkey, they are moving towards making abortion illegal.
Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative. In addition, we have conservatives who may yet win power in this country trying to make abortion illegal right here in the US. Romney wants to push for a constitutional amendement making abortion illegal. So please, let go of this false outrage about Turkey.
<<He'll argue with a statue and insist that the statue's lack of response means that he's right.
If you make claims that can't be found anywhere in the media, you can't provide backup for said claims, then most likely you pulled said claim out of your ass. You have a penchent for making shit up to support your arguments, and then hide your head in the sand when called out on your B.S. It is standard to support your claims in a debate bub, so please don't pretend it is some strange request.
>>You have a penchent for making shit up to support your arguments, and then hide your head in the sand when called out on your B.S.
Jeff must be pontificating at the mirror again.
P.S. It's "penchAnt."
<Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative.>
That's y'r defense? Really? That it's just a vacillation? It's no big deal because it's a vacillation? Really? Is that really your answer? That something should not be a concern because it's a vacillation? Are you serious? What a great way to never have to be wrong.
<In addition, we have conservatives who may yet win power in this country trying to make abortion illegal right here in the US.>
Yup. The difference? We do not have the fundamentalists like they have. We have something called the First Amendment...look it up. That will cause a check to the ability that our Conservatives have to push their agenda. Where so far in the world has fundamentalism been curtailed? You are just presenting an opinion fact.
<Jeff must be pontificating at the mirror again.>
Mirror, echo chamber. Whichever.
allafrica.com/stories/201206130506.html
BY RUTH MICHAELSON, 13 JUNE 2012
Comment (3)
Jillian Kestler-DAmours/IPS
Eritreans protesting in Tel Aviv.
Ramallah — Israeli officials have begun forcibly rounding up immigrants from South Sudan and the Côte d'Ivoire in order to start deporting them on Sunday.
The Israeli Population and Migration Authority stated yesterday that a total of 213 people had been arrested between Sunday and Tuesday, with 105 of the arrests affecting immigrants from South Sudan.
Many were detained following raids on their homes, but eyewitnesses in the southern town of Eilat told reporters that they had seen officials stopping African pedestrians in the street and demanding to see their IDs.
Branded "Operation Returning Home," officials stated that for one week they will offer 1,000 euros and the cost of their airline ticket for each adult who agrees to leave Israel with any children they may have.
Those who refuse will be interned in a detention centre in the Negev desert until they can be forcibly deported.
Interior Minister Eli Yishai stated Tuesday that the next stage of deportations will focus on immigrants from Sudan and Eritrea, who number around 50,000.
As Israel accelerates the building of detention centres to house those it considers illegal immigrants, the Defense Ministry has stated that it intends to erect 20,000-25,000 tents comprising a 4.5-square-meter space for each person.
The campaign to drive African immigrants out of cities, such as Tel Aviv, is seen as a response to recent waves of violent anti-immigration demonstrations.
Zionist scoundrels!
What do you expect?
But it's already being justified by Panhandlers: This keeps Israel Jewish [just as Auschwitz kept Germany Aryan or whatever].
<<Jeff must be pontificating at the mirror again.
So out of all of the information on this page the best you have is to essentially say 'I know you are but what am I"? How about contributing something of substance rather than playground taunts?
<<P.S. It's "penchAnt."
Internet spelling police eh? Yu hav no othority! :)~
<<<Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative.>
That's y'r defense? Really? That it's just a vacillation? It's no big deal because it's a vacillation?<<
I have no need to defend conservatism being that I myself am a liberal progressive. What I am doing is putting your fear mongering in context. You asked us to provide an example of a successful Democracy among the Muslim nations, Turkey is that example. You then moved forward in trying to discredit Turkey as being an example by indicating that they are going fundamentalist. A country trending conservative does nothing to demonstrate that the Democracy itself is a failure, so your discrediting efforts have failed miserably.
<<That something should not be a concern because it's a vacillation?
A straw man argument. I am concerned about conservative trends anywhere and everywhere, including right here in our own country. That is not where our disagreement lies, we are speaking of Democracy and it's success, not conservative trends that ebb and wane in virtually every Democracy in the world, including Canada and the US.
<<Yup. The difference? We do not have the fundamentalists like they have.
I beg to differ, we have very radical and crazy right wing fundamentlalists, some of them had a good run at the GOP nomination.
<<We have something called the First Amendment...look it up.
Why would I have to look something up that is common knowledge? Are you pretending that I somehow don't understand the separation of church and sate? Are you somehow pretending that Turkey does not have an equivalency to our own separation of church and state? What specifically are you trying to say with the above comment?
<<That will cause a check to the ability that our Conservatives have to push their agenda.
Nobody indicated otherwise. Turkey also has separation of church and state, so I am unsure as to what your point is supposed to be.
<<You are just presenting an opinion fact.
What opinion did I present as fact? Please be specific, because you are long on hot air and short on details.
P.S. Please elborate as to why it is not significant that the MB went from 50% of the vote to 25% of the vote. That is a significant drop in support by ANY measure.
As previously said, and as you ignored: "I predicted that the share of votes the MB recieved would shrink as these new parties closed the organizational ability gap. And that is exactly what happened, they went from around 50% of the vote to less than 25% of the vote, a significant change regardless of your attempts to dismiss that which is inconvenient to your narrative. "
<So out of all of the information on this page the best you have is to essentially say 'I know you are but what am I"? How about contributing something of substance rather than playground taunts?>
Jeff, 'arguing' with you is irrelevant. You will NEVER accept any information that goes against your agenda or bias, and even if facts are presented, you'll say something like, "Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative." It's not worth it. So - I'd rather just say what I want because then the positive reinforcement is so much more enjoyable.
You made y'r bed.
<What I am doing is putting your fear mongering in context.>
No, you are making an unsupportable argument. Your argument is that; in effect, it's maybe not so bad because it could go either way. The fact is that there has not been any Islam-based in any context government that I am aware of that has gone more conservative and then has backed off. You can't point to one, but...instead of admitting that this is a serious concern, you will just argue against me.
<You asked us to provide an example of a successful Democracy among the Muslim nations, Turkey is that example.>
Exactly. Which is going more conservative by the day. That shows that what YOU say is "successful" is really trending towards a very big negative.
<A country trending conservative does nothing to demonstrate that the Democracy itself is a failure, so your discrediting efforts have failed miserably.>
Jeff, in your head, anything that goes against your belief or opinion is "failing miserably". You still think Egypt is doing well, so...
<not conservative trends that ebb and wane in virtually every Democracy in the world, including Canada and the US.>
That's not what we're talking about - which is a perfect example of how you will form an argument in your favor without care for context.
How Conservatives work here or Canada is different than in a country that is turning more conservative using Islam as a measure. There's a difference. As long as you are able to frame the debate in your own way - you'll always feel that you 'win' the argument. That is a game for the stupid. That's like you saying that you're a great boxer because you win fights against smaller women. Sorry, there's a different between conservativism in US & Canada and in a country where Islam is concerned.
<<Yup. The difference? We do not have the fundamentalists like they have.
<<<I beg to differ, we have very radical and crazy right wing fundamentlalists, some of them had a good run at the GOP nomination.>>>
See? You have just conflated in an equal measure our conservatives and the fundamentalist Muslims. You have conflated our government with the protections of the Constitution to what is going on in Turkey. Good job. A really good argument. Yeah. Got it.
<Are you somehow pretending that Turkey does not have an equivalency to our own separation of church and state?>
Yes.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sepa...ate#Turkey
"Any types of proselytizing or missionary activity promoted by Christians are not well received by Turkey's conservative Muslim population nor by its leaders. "Police sometimes arrest proselytizers for disturbing the peace, "insulting Islam," conducting unauthorized educational courses, or distributing literature that has criminal or separatist elements" (US Department of State)."
danidebold.hubpages.com/hub/ch...-turkey
"The Turkish parliament has approved an education bill that some say would advance an Islamic agenda and lower standards of education."
www.au.org/church-state...on-in-schools
<Turkey also has separation of church and state, so I am unsure as to what your point is supposed to be.>
You won't admit this, but OBVIOUSLY you do not understand the differences between Turkey's separation and what we have here. Don't worry, I won't make you 'prove' that you do, because OBVIOUSLY you don't.
<What opinion did I present as fact? Please be specific, because you are long on hot air and short on details.>
Shh.
<As previously said, and as you ignored>
You act as if this is something special. I ignore you all the time.
>>So out of all of the information on this page the best you have is to essentially say 'I know you are but what am I"? How about contributing something of substance rather than playground taunts?
Meh... you're not worth the time for much else.
>>Internet spelling police eh? Yu hav no othority! :)~
I speak for one of your favorite "authorites:" dictionary.reference.com/
<<>>So out of all of the information on this page the best you have is to essentially say 'I know you are but what am I"? How about contributing something of substance rather than playground taunts?
Meh... you're not worth the time for much else. <<
Whatever your excuse of the day for your inability to discuss the subject matter, what is clear is that you are replacing a substantive response with nothing more than trolling.
<<Jeff, 'arguing' with you is irrelevant.
Irrelevant to what specifically? Are you engaging in nothing but irrelevancy? What specifically does that even mean?
<<You will NEVER accept any information that goes against your agenda or bias
Flat out false, as is demonstrated by my admission that I was initially wrong about the MB only recieving 20% of the vote. And now that they are losing support and quickly approaching that 20% mark, something I predicted would happen, you want to ignore these solid numbers out of Egypt that show they lost support by over 25%.
<<you'll say something like, "Turkey itself has vaccilated between less and more conservative." It's not worth it.
Actually my sentence was regarding the US, not Turkey. And yes, Turkey trending more conservative does nothing to negate the fact that they are a successful Democracy. Which is what we were speaking of regarding Turkey.
<<You made y'r bed.
Huh? You are once again using a phrase incorrectly. The phrase is in reference to one creating consequences they have to deal with. What specific consequences have I created that I now need to deal with? Please be specific.
<<<You asked us to provide an example of a successful Democracy among the Muslim nations, Turkey is that example.>
Exactly. Which is going more conservative by the day.<<
Yes, you keep saying that, but it does nothing to negate the success of Turkey as a Democracy.
<<That shows that what YOU say is "successful" is really trending towards a very big negative.
Does it indicate that the US is not a successful Democracy when conservatives win power? Obviously not. Both consevatives and liberals comprise the makeup of Turkey and the US, the vaccilation between conservative and liberal is in reality a result of a Democracy. In other words, your argument is complete horse shit.
<<<A country trending conservative does nothing to demonstrate that the Democracy itself is a failure, so your discrediting efforts have failed miserably.>
Jeff, in your head, anything that goes against your belief or opinion is "failing miserably".<<
Standards as to what constitutes a successful Democracy are not measured in terms of conservative or liberal. This is a simple fact, it has nothing to do with belief.
<<You still think Egypt is doing well, so...
I never once indicated that Egypt is "doing well", that is an example of a REAL strawman argument. What I have CORRECTLY noted is that the MB is quickly losing support, thereby creating an encouraging trend where other political parties are getting their shit together and directly competing with the MB candidate. That is a good thing Andrew, I mean the liberal candidate almost won as many votes as the MB candidate. That is significant.
<<<not conservative trends that ebb and wane in virtually every Democracy in the world, including Canada and the US.>
That's not what we're talking about - which is a perfect example of how you will form an argument in your favor without care for context.>>
It is exactly what we are talking about, which is why you were unable to muster a response demonstrating otherwise. The measure of any succesful Democracy is not by way liberal/conservative narratives.
<<How Conservatives work here or Canada is different than in a country that is turning more conservative using Islam as a measure.
It is no different than Rick Santorum and the other GOP religious nuts using Christianity as a "measure", it is the SAME thing. Dance around that inconvenient fact all you like, you are doing nothing more than making illogical excuses for your dismissal of Turkey as the example you asked for. Typical.
<<Sorry, there's a different between conservativism in US & Canada and in a country where Islam is concerned.
Sorry bud, but you are wrong even by that measure. Is Turkey trending more conservative by US standards? Certainly. Is Turkey trending more conservative by Middle East and Islamic standards? Absolutely not. So you can pretend that Turkey going more conservative = radical fundamentalism, but it would not be an accurate or forthright assessment.
<<<<<I beg to differ, we have very radical and crazy right wing fundamentlalists, some of them had a good run at the GOP nomination.>>>
See? You have just conflated in an equal measure our conservatives and the fundamentalist Muslims. <<
I am comparing OUR CONSERVATIVES to TURKEY'S CONSERVATIVES. You are trying to compare our conservatives to the most radical of Islamic fundamentalists, rather than to the actual conservatives in Turkey. Yours is an illogical comparison, mine is logical and appropriate. You fail.....again.
<<You have conflated our government with the protections of the Constitution to what is going on in Turkey.
What is going on in Turkey? What specifically are you speaking of?
<<You won't admit this, but OBVIOUSLY you do not understand the differences between Turkey's separation and what we have here.
I absolutely recognize that we are different, I am not under the mistaken impression that Democracy in the ME should be a cookie cutter version of our own. The fact still remains that Turkey is a successful Democracy, one that is ruled by religious leaders and kings as they are in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
What I find funny is that you claim you are not saying Islam is incompatible with Democracy, but that is the exact argument you keep putting forth. All the while not specifically stating it so as to not be held accountable to your glaringly obvious position.
<<<What opinion did I present as fact? Please be specific, because you are long on hot air and short on details.>
Shh. >>
In other words you were blowing smoke once again, saying things that are illogical and without merit. Strawman!!! Irrelevant!!! Shhhhh..... Are nothing but piss poor excuses for your inability to provide an answer.
<<<As previously said, and as you ignored>
You act as if this is something special.<>
So you don't think that going from 50% of the vote to 25% of the vote is significant in the electoral world? Yes or no?
<<I ignore you all the time.
This very post of yours demonstrates otherwise. There you go again with the illogical use of the english language when you don't have an answer. You might as well be screaming "peanut butter" for as much sense as you are making.
And now it seems that the MB will have even less influence, the parliamentary elections were deemed unconstitutional and new ones will be coming in the near future. This is significant being that the MB share of the vote has dropped from 50% to less than 25%.
<Whatever your excuse of the day for your inability to discuss the subject matter, what is clear is that you are replacing a substantive response with nothing more than trolling.>
Jeff, I've all but given up an having rational, reasonable conversations with you. You almost never admit that you're wrong - so based on our conversations here, one would believe that you are almost always right. Really? You're pretty much infallible? Come on now.
<Irrelevant to what specifically? Are you engaging in nothing but irrelevancy? What specifically does that even mean?>
Oh, Jeff.
<<You will NEVER accept any information that goes against your agenda or bias>
<Flat out false>
OK. So, you're unaware that you have a problem.
Step 1. We admitted we were powerless over our addiction - that our lives had become unmanageable.
There you go. Today can be the first day of the rest of your life. I encourage you to get the help that's being offered.
<<<You made y'r bed.
<Huh? You are once again using a phrase incorrectly. The phrase is in reference to one creating consequences they have to deal with. What specific consequences have I created that I now need to deal with? Please be specific.>
That people start to ignore you?
<Yes, you keep saying that, but it does nothing to negate the success of Turkey as a Democracy.>
Strawman. I have never made an opinion that Turkey IS NOT a "success...as a Democracy". My point all along has been that any country that uses religion - and in this case; Islam, is incompatible in the long run with Democracy. That they are succeeding TODAY is not relevant. Look at Egypt today. They are calling for a new election. Why? Because of a struggle between the Islamists that want laws based on Muslim law, and everyone else - including the military, who will have to deal with the ramifications of the decisions of the Islamists. There can be no Democracy when the government is fundamentalist. The two are incompatible.
<Does it indicate that the US is not a successful Democracy when conservatives win power?>
Again, we have the Constitution, which negates the concerns that the minorities & non-fundamentalists in Egypt are having.
<the vaccilation between conservative and liberal is in reality a result of a Democracy. In other words, your argument is complete horse shit.>
Yeah. OK. You tell that to the Egyptian Christians, or the non-Muslim Turks. You go and tell them that Jeffy says that their concerns about fundamentalism is just a silly concern and the trend towards a fundamentalist conservative government is just nothing but vacillation. Go on. You go tell them that, since you know so much more.
<That is a good thing Andrew, I mean the liberal candidate almost won as many votes as the MB candidate.>
Sure, but that has NOTHING to do with what my point has always been. My point all long is the incompatibility of Islam & Democracy. Short AND long term.
<It is exactly what we are talking about>
Oh, cool. You are framing your own debate without regard to the ACTUAL point. How can you argue against MY point which started this whole thing off, arguing YOUR point? Oh, Lordy. This way, you get to win every argument. That's quite a great idea.
<It is no different than Rick Santorum and the other GOP religious nuts using Christianity as a "measure", it is the SAME thing.>
That you think this is LAUGHABLE. We have Constitutional measures to preclude the same concerns that the Christians & minorities in Egypt & Turkey have today. So, there is NO comparison. none Dance around that inconvenient fact all that you like, you are doing nothing more than making illogical excuses for your insistence that these situations are equal. Typical.
<Is Turkey trending more conservative by Middle East and Islamic standards? Absolutely not. So you can pretend that Turkey going more conservative = radical fundamentalism, but it would not be an accurate or forthright assessment.>
See? You are framing your own debate. So - you win! NICE!
<I am comparing OUR CONSERVATIVES to TURKEY'S CONSERVATIVES.>
Good. Have a good time. They are not equally comparable - and furthermore, I have never made that argument, so with whom the fuck are you arguing?
<You are trying to compare our conservatives to the most radical of Islamic fundamentalists>
No I am not. Never have. That's y'r fantasy.
<What is going on in Turkey? What specifically are you speaking of?>
The same thing as I always have. Fundamentalist Islam's incompatibility with democracy. Turkey going more conservative. The success of the Fundamentalists all over the world vis a vie creating a greater Islam-based government structure. It's my opinion that this is not your 'vacillation', but a MOVEMENT.
<What I find funny is that you claim you are not saying Islam is incompatible with Democracy>
Exactly. It's not. It's Fundamentalist Islam. Just any religion, even a conservative government is fine...but when it turns Fundamentalist...that's when it changes - if the far-Right of Israel were able to take final control, or if it looked like their power was so strong as to turn that whole country, I'd be as concerned about that, too. But, I'm not. I never have been. Again...you are making up your own argument.
<but that is the exact argument you keep putting forth.>
Your interpretation of my argument is NOT the same as my argument.
<So you don't think that going from 50% of the vote to 25% of the vote is significant in the electoral world? Yes or no?>
It's not that easy to say "yes" or "no". Which is why I have been ignoring you. That's a nuanced issue. You don't do well with nuance.
<And now it seems that the MB will have even less influence, the parliamentary elections were deemed unconstitutional and new ones will be coming in the near future.>
You don't know that. New elections means a new electorate. The more organized party will in all probability do better.
It's because Egypt fundamentil? Or Zionists greedy for more land?
<you are replacing a substantive response with nothing more than trolling.>
Andrew has turned very low quality, i struggle to justify having debates with him these days, but there is nothing else around to debate with in here, you and me normally agree Jeff.
Disturbing new development Jeff with SCAF dissolving parliament, the Muslim Brotherhood are certainly not perfect, but my hope is they can, with the help of progressives, push SCAF out of the way over the next few years, again id take the MB over SCAF any day of the week, with the MB in they will help portect democracy and then progressives have time and a chance to get in power, and the public debates will change the MB, but SCAF are out to destroy the revolution.
<<You almost never admit that you're wrong
Then by that standard you are even worse being that you never admit your errors, even when your claims are obvious and demonstrably incorrect. I have watched you argue that up is down and black is white just so as to not have to admit your errors.
Ultimately all you are doing is trolling now, and trying to make personally If you want to discuss the subject matter in an adult manner then I am game, otherwise move along so that the rest of us can have a substantive debate. I am done with this idiocy.
<<Andrew has turned very low quality
And that is an understatement.
Echo chambers make sweet, sweet music 100% of the time.
<<<Irrelevant to what specifically? Are you engaging in nothing but irrelevancy? What specifically does that even mean?>
Oh, Jeff. <<
More avoidence.
<<OK. So, you're unaware that you have a problem.
In other words, your arguments suck so you attack the person. As is your typical tactic, one that fails miserably I might add.
<<<<<You made y'r bed.
<Huh? You are once again using a phrase incorrectly. The phrase is in reference to one creating consequences they have to deal with. What specific consequences have I created that I now need to deal with? Please be specific.>
That people start to ignore you?>>
What people are you speaking of? If you are talking about Abraxas, clearly he was willing to engage me in discussing clean water.......until I pointed out Ron Paul's horrible record on the environment. His avoidence in responding to Paul's actual record speaks more to the truth of my assertion than it does to anything about me personally. Be that as it may, one person does not = "people".
<<Strawman. I have never made an opinion that Turkey IS NOT a "success...as a Democracy".
Jesus dude, you really need to learn what a straw man argument is.
<<My point all along has been that any country that uses religion - and in this case; Islam, is incompatible in the long run with Democracy.
What do you mean by "uses religion"? Please do try to make sense.
<<That they are succeeding TODAY is not relevant.
It is absolutely relevant, AND it is directly relevant to the question from YOU that precipitated our conversation on Turkey. You asked for an example of a successful Democracy TODAY, not yesterday, not the future, TODAY. Turkey is the example YOU fucking asked for, and now you say it is not relevant. Man, you twist in the wind worse than anyone I have seen on this tribe.
<< Look at Egypt today. They are calling for a new election. Why? Because of a struggle between the Islamists that want laws based on Muslim law
Of course, revolution and a new and possible emerging Democracy. Such power struggles are not an example of an existing and successful Democracy somehow failing in some distant future. They are not comparable in that regard. You have failed basic logic once again.
<<There can be no Democracy when the government is fundamentalist.
The Govt. of Turkey is fundamentalist?
<<<Does it indicate that the US is not a successful Democracy when conservatives win power?>
Again, we have the Constitution, which negates the concerns that the minorities & non-fundamentalists in Egypt are having.<<
ummmm....Egypt has not even had the opportunity to write a constitution yet bub, pay attention.
<<<the vaccilation between conservative and liberal is in reality a result of a Democracy. In other words, your argument is complete horse shit.>
Yeah. OK. You tell that to the Egyptian Christians<<
We were discussing TURKEY in regards to vaccilation between conservative and liberal, pay attention.
<<or the non-Muslim Turks.
The non-mulsim turks are quite aware of this vaccilation between conservative and liberal within Democratic societies, as is most people that have even taken a cursery glance at history.
<<You go and tell them that Jeffy says that their concerns about fundamentalism is just a silly concern
Now that is a REAL straw man argument. I never even hinted that "concern" is unwarranted. Pay attention.
<<
Sure, but that has NOTHING to do with what my point has always been. My point all long is the incompatibility of Islam & Democracy.
And yet Turkey disproves your assertion, a successful Democracy in a country that is primarily Islamic.. Which is why you keep trying to paint Turkey as heading toward some fundamentalist shithole from which there is no return, the countries very existence hurts your argument. Fail.
<<<That is a good thing Andrew, I mean the liberal candidate almost won as many votes as the MB candidate.>
Sure, but that has NOTHING to do with what my point has always been. <<
Is it somehow only about your point? You certainly seemed to think the percentages once mattered, but now that they are going against your narrative you want to ignore them. Typical practice for you Andrew.
<<<It is exactly what we are talking about>
Oh, cool. You are framing your own debate without regard to the ACTUAL point. <<
You are confusing your own shifting and ever-changing point with the "ACTUAL point". Which is demonstrated by the fact that you once thought the numbers and percentages were important when it helped your narrative, now your point shifts when the numbers go against your narrative. You flip around worse than Romney. T
Trying to have a constructive argument with you about anything is ultimately pointless, as most people here are starting to see. You are all attitude and very little substance. I think I will move along to those that can disagree in an adult manner, such as Gerbil and others. This is pointless idiocy.
