With official results in from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election, we now have a credible snapshot of public opinion in the most populous Arab nation — one that shows a number of features that couldn’t have been identified under one-party rule.
The first is the large number of Egyptians who still don’t know how to participate in political life. Almost half of those eligible didn’t vote, apparently unable to gauge the relevance of the exercise. This contrasts with decades of fixed elections in which 99.99 percent of the electorate were reported as having voted.
To many Egyptians, including large numbers of urban middle-classers who stayed away, “the right not to vote” is as important as the right to vote. At the same time, millions of felaheen (poor peasants) were relieved not to be rounded up and marched to polling stations to cast their ballots for the ruling party’s candidate.
Second is the lack of support for the establishment that has dominated Egypt since its independence in the 1920s — the military elite that has dominated the government, and the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which has acted as the main opposition.
In last week’s voting, the two candidates of that establishment — Muhammad Mursi for the Brotherhood and Ahmad Shafiq for the military — together drew less than half of the vote. Taking into account those who didn’t vote, the two men represent around a quarter of the electorate, despite immense resources at their disposal — the machinery of administration for Shafiq and a tsunami of Arab oil money for Mursi.
Third is the size of the Islamist vote.
For decades, experts have claimed that a majority of Egyptians wanted the Brotherhood to rule. Now we know this isn’t so. Mursi and Abdul-Munem Abolfotuh (the dissident Brotherhood candidate) together won around 40 percent of the votes — one-fifth of those eligible — in a country in which 85 percent of the population is Muslim.
The Islamists also did poorly in cities with a strong working class, especially around the Suez Canal, where the Brotherhood was born in 1928.
The Brotherhood did well in lower-middle-class urban areas, where Islamist charities provide social services that the government doesn’t.
The size of the Islamist vote is in line with that of other Muslim countries’. In those with credible elections, Islamists have won between 11 percent (Malaysia) and 44 percent (Turkey). More recently, Islamists have won 21 percent in Morocco, 27 percent in Tunisia and 13 percent in Algeria.
The so-called Tahrir Square constituency had no horse in this race; a chunk of it boycotted. But it’s unlikely that any Tahrir Square candidate would’ve collected more than a fifth of the vote, as Hamdeen Subbahi did with his mix of Tahrirism, Arab nationalism and leftist rhetoric. The truth is that a majority of Egyptians don’t quite know what the Tahrir uprising was about, apart from the demand that President Hosni Mubarak step aside.
Subbahi’s surprising success in coming in third indicates that the Egyptian left, in alliance with Arab nationalists, can still attract a sixth of the electorate.
Another surprising feature: The urban poor, seen as the Islamists’ core constituency, didn’t vote for Mursi. A large chunk went for Subbahi, while Shafiq also attracted many.
The outcome of the Mursi-Shafiq duel next month remains uncertain. Some voters who abstained in the first round may go to the polls in the second, which they see as decisive. (This is the experience in France, where two-round elections are the norm.) In the first round, all three Islamist parties went for maximum mobilization in support of Mursi, while Aboulfotuh attracted traditional Muslims. Thus, a larger turnout in the second round could favor Shafiq.
In fact, some Egyptians worry that the military has made a deal to share power with the Islamists, with Shafiq as president and Mursi as prime minister. But the first round shows that the two putative partners may not find it easy to pull off such a scheme.
As I noted in The Post a year ago, Egypt is experiencing change within the regime rather than regime change. That change may or may not result in a revolution by radically altering the political, social and economic structures built since Egyptian independence.
In any case, revolutions are designated as such after they’ve happened — not while they may be happening.
Read more: www.nypost.com/p/news/opi...zz1wMxxXEKC
Why should I comment on another treatise that just confirms your already-held belief? What % of the parliament went to the Islamists? Remind me...
We'll see who wins the presidency, but that does not change the fact that whomever wins - even if it's the Mubarak guy, he'll have to work with an Islaimist-led parliament...
<<Why should I comment on another treatise that just confirms your already-held belief? What % of the parliament went to the Islamists? Remind me...
We are evaluating and discussing the Presidential election, and now it seems that because the results don't jive with your narrative you only want to look at the past. The percentage of votes for the fundamentalist candidate has plunged significantly, something you seemingly want to ignore.
<<We'll see who wins the presidency
Even if the MB wins the presidency, the fact that their percentage of votes has plummeted is significant. As a matter of fact, the MB is looking to make a coalition with the moderates and liberals in their fight for the preisdency. Which is of course also contrary to your narrative.
<<but that does not change the fact that whomever wins - even if it's the Mubarak guy, he'll have to work with an Islaimist-led parliament...
Nobody has indicated otherwise.
It is not semantics bud, these word differences completely change the meaning. You just yell "semantics" anytime the words don't fit your narrative. You also are still ignoring the primary point, I REPEAT!
<<Why should I comment on another treatise that just confirms your already-held belief? What % of the parliament went to the Islamists? Remind me...
We are evaluating and discussing the Presidential election, and now it seems that because the results don't jive with your narrative you only want to look at the past. The percentage of votes for the fundamentalist candidate has plunged significantly, something you seemingly want to ignore.
<<We'll see who wins the presidency
Even if the MB wins the presidency, the fact that their percentage of votes has plummeted is significant. As a matter of fact, the MB is looking to make a coalition with the moderates and liberals in their fight for the preisdency. Which is of course also contrary to your narrative.
Andrew your saying its all about what happens to Jeff, fine, you say the MB are going towards Fundamenatlisim, if they win, what exactly is yoru prediction that there fundamentlisim is going to do, stoning woman for adultry, executing converts from Islam, what are you saying there going to do, and then we can see if it happens ?
<the MB is looking to make a coalition with the moderates and liberals in their fight for the preisdency.>
hey what about that Andrew, I thought they were joining with the Salafists, you think the got the wrong parties mixed up or something ?
<what exactly is yoru prediction that there fundamentlisim is going to do,>
I don't have one. I have no idea where it'll lead. But, name one country that is at all fundamentalist of any kind that leads to positivity.
Wait...you can't think of one?
Oh.
<hey what about that Andrew, I thought they were joining with the Salafists, you think the got the wrong parties mixed up or something ?>
Are you not yet sick of the propaganda & machinations? In case you were not aware, the MB said that they would run for a small amount of the Egyptian Parliament. They got most of it. They also stated that they would not put a candidate for the Presidency. Did you even know that? That was another lie. How many machinations & lies will they have to tell before you stop believing in what they say?
The percentage of votes for the fundamentalist candidate has plunged significantly, something you are still ignoring. Why do you hide your head in the sand when the facts don't fit your narrative Andrew?
<<That was another lie. How many machinations & lies will they have to tell before you stop believing in what they say?
Now that we know Zimmerman lied to the court, do you still believe what he has to say?
<. I have no idea where it'll lead. But, name one country that is at all fundamentalist of any kind that leads to positivity. >
my point Andrew is the MB in Egypt now will not really be fundamentalists but conservative Islam - there is a thin line between the two, but time and time again I see you wanting to label conservative Islam as fundamentalisim, you done this with Turkey, you kept talking of a danger of fundamentalisim spreading into Turkey, but when I took it down to the detalis of whats happening in Turkey it turned out its about conservative Islam Fundamentalisim.
People are entiled to choose there culture Andrew, there are probably some Turkisk Muslims who think your lifestyle or other young American City dewllers is too liberal, you think there too conservative, tolerance is about accepting your or there right to chose, even if you think thing its a wrong choice.
Fundamentalisim i see as something different, related of course, and again there is a thin line, but fundamentalisim is what we see in Iran and Suadi, bot of which i completly agree with you that nothing good comes from it, but we DO NOT see in modern Turkey. I see it entirley justfied that you oppose Fundamentalisim Islam Andrew, especialy when we look at Suadi and Iran, but not justified that you oppose consrvative Islam which is a cultural choice. America is a very liberal country but there is no reason why other countries HAVE to pick there culture.
Now that is the six million dollar question, will Egypts MB chose the Islam in polticis of Turkey or of Suadi/Iran. My money is on the fact they will chose the Turkish model, not the Saudi/Iran one and i just listned to an expert on the middle east on Charlie rose from the London School of economics who said absoultly the Muslim Brotherhood see the Iranian model as a failed model and the Turkish model as succesful.
You seem to suspect that conservative Islam inevitably will lead to fundamentalism, this argument reminds me of the argument that smoking weed inevitably leads to hard drugs, while this can happen it mostly doesnt.
You really need to seprate the two Andrew, Conservative Islam and Fundamentalist Islam, education and the internet alone are very likely to prevent the former turning into the later, not to mention the general dynamic of the Arab spring that is forward looking and progressive.
<turned out its about conservative Islam Fundamentalisim. >
turned out to be about conservative Islam NOT fundamentalism.
<How many machinations & lies will they have to tell before you stop believing in what they say?>
Andrew I am NOT going on statements by the MB, I am going on leading world experts like the Council on Foergin relations and the London School of Economics middle east expert who have studied the organisation intensely for years and are also studying recent developments. I am also not going on a vague hunch like you that they will turn fundamentalist.
See it like this, there is a clear choice for these new Muslim groups coming into power now in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, do they chose the Turkish Model or the Iranian Saudi models, it looks pretty clear which model is working best. You can hear many many Egyptians who say they do not want Iran in Egypt, and i think they are not too hot on Saudi too. The expert from LSE on the middle east says the MB see Iran as a failed model but Turkey as a model that is succeeding.
People from Israel CAN make peace with the likes of Turkey, Fatah and other moderates like that, they cannot make peace with the likes of the current Iran regime, you should at least give these people a chance Andrew and see which they chose before you label them as your enemy and bag them as fundamentalist like Iran's regime.
<<Fundamentalisim i see as something different, related of course, and again there is a thin line, but fundamentalisim is what we see in Iran and Suadi, bot of which i completly agree with you that nothing good comes from it, but we DO NOT see in modern Turkey.
I have to say that I definately don't see Egypt going the way of either Saudi Arabia or Iran.
<<i just listned to an expert on the middle east on Charlie rose from the London School of economics who said absoultly the Muslim Brotherhood see the Iranian model as a failed model and the Turkish model as succesful.
What did he base this opinion on?
He didnt really say Jeff but presented it as a kind of fact he knows about them i guess based on his knowledge of them and extensive talks with Islamists and others in the Region, it says this about him on the site =
<Fawaz A. Gerges , holds the Christian A. Johnson Chair in International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence, New York.
He taught at Oxford, Harvard, and Columbia universities and was a research fellow at Princeton University for two years. He won several academic awards, one of which is an 18-month MacArthur fellowship and a Carnegie Scholarship.
He is spending the 2006-2007 academic year as a Carnegie Scholar residing in the Middle East interviewing activists, civil society leaders, and mainstream and radical Islamists.>
He's now director of the Middle East studies and LSE, well worth a watch as it covers several topics around the Arab Spring, no just the MB -
www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12383
I think you'll find it interesting what he says about Obama handling really well a dramatic reduced role of America in the region where Obama is basicly saying to the Arabs, ok, good - you now take ownership of your own destiny yourself.
Just watched it again and he is very clear that the Islamicsts from Egypt to Tunisia to Morocco see Iran as a failed model and Turkey as the example as to how Islam can work with Capitalism and democracy in the modern world.
<<Obama is basicly saying to the Arabs, ok, good - you now take ownership of your own destiny yourself.
Which is ultimately the correct route in my opinion.
<<In case you were not aware, the MB said that they would run for a small amount of the Egyptian Parliament. They got most of it. They also stated that they would not put a candidate for the Presidency. Did you even know that?
What I find odd is that Andrew can't remember that we have discussed this at length, and yet he speaks like he is informing us of something we were unaware of.
<my point Andrew is the MB in Egypt now will not really be fundamentalists but conservative Islam - there is a thin line between the two>
If you say so, buddy.
<People are entiled to choose there culture Andrew,>
Strawman - when have I ever stated otherwise?
<You seem to suspect that conservative Islam inevitably will lead to fundamentalism,>
No, not necessarily "fundamentalism", but it will lead an eveloping, more conservative culture. Will the fundamentalists be the end result? Don't know.
<this argument reminds me of the argument that smoking weed inevitably leads to hard drugs, while this can happen it mostly doesnt.>
The two argument have nothing to do with each other.
<<<my point Andrew is the MB in Egypt now will not really be fundamentalists but conservative Islam - there is a thin line between the two>
If you say so, buddy. >>
Clearly the conservatives in Turkey are not nearly as extreme as say the Saudi form of Wahhabism. Do you understand this distinction?
Notice that Andrew has largely ignored the fact that the MB went from 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections to less than 25% of the vote today. They are quickly approaching that 20% number they garnered during the Mubarak years.
<<People are entiled to choose there culture Andrew,>
Strawman - when have I ever stated otherwise?
<You seem to suspect that conservative Islam inevitably will lead to fundamentalism,>
No, not necessarily "fundamentalism", but it will lead an eveloping, more conservative culture>
Can you not see a contradiction there above, you say your not saying they cant chose there own culture, yet in the second sentence there is an obvious negative judgement in "enveloping", seems to me your equating conservative Islamic culture with a dark cloud.
I think you need to work out what kind of thing you are opposed to because i think your a bit confused. Anti Semitism or stoning of woman, hostility to modern education etc i can understand you seeing as a problem, but are burkas on the beach really a problem ? Doest the later really lead to the former ?
I can understand why your suspicious of conservative Islam, especially as i say when we look at Iran and Saudi. What i think you should consider is that the rise in Islamic culture in places like Turkey is nto really a rise, it was always there, 90% + of the people have always been Islamic just because of certain influences of the west and pressure say of the last 100 years ago untill recently the west had such a superior station in the world repressed to some extent Islam.
Its impossible for these people to properly move forward unless they find there own way out of that. Inevitable then that Islam will play a strong role in Public life just as say Christianity played a strong role in the development of western Society in say the Victorian times.
Id ask you to try and separate more fundamentalism with conservatism. There are reasons why in a rapidly changing developing world that people are holding not tradtional values in these countries to some extent, thats not even unique to Islamic countries, Hinduism and Christianity is growing in other parts of the developing world.
Ultimately the only thing that will prove to you that the liberation and growth of prominence of Islam in the Arab world is not going to produce more Irans or Saudis, or even heightened aggression towards Israel, is time. But you should have an open mind when you see Turkey is not degenerating but improving on most fronts.
Take Turkeys relationship with Israel. Its true the rise of the AKP party has made relations with Israel worse in a superficial way. But the relations before were not real, they were just installed by a corrupt military reigiem in Turkey. It had no authenticity with the people. Now if they find peace it will be real one.
My Brother goes there regular and has Turkish and western friends there, he say the majority of the people fall in between the modern young professional secularists and the more puritan type Muslims.
Of course places like Egypt have different histories but you should at least listen to some of the most prominent experts who are saying the Islamic groups in the Arab countries are looking to Turkey as an example much more than Saudi or Iran. Not that im trying to make Turkey out as some kind of superior country because of my roots, Iran, Egypt and Saudi have all had very advanced civilizations at different times too just Turkey is ahead on some things right now.
and you should also understand that in countries like Turkey, and soon enough some of the Arab countries will follow them, an emphsis on economic development, technology, education and science will prevent Islam being too much of a force of stagnation and regression.
In Turkey many of the citerzens get just as excited about the economic growth of Turkey as they do there religion, thats for sure.
You see in Saudi its different, they just have to pay a handful of foreigners to press the buttons on the oil pumps, they havnt needed a millions strong increasingly educated middle class as the new emerging countries will need.
<Can you not see a contradiction there above, you say your not saying they cant chose there own culture, yet in the second sentence there is an obvious negative judgement in "enveloping",>
No. One made a statement that suggested that I ever doubted that any people anywhere are not "entitled to choose there culture". I never said so. The second OBVIOUSLY is my opinion that what is happening will "lead an eveloping, more conservative culture". These two ideas have NOTHING to do with each other. Nothing. Not a bit. Not even tertiarily. Not a whit.
<seems to me your equating conservative Islamic culture with a dark cloud.>
Yes. Yes I am. I believe that ANY conservative religion/movement will result in "a dark cloud".
<are burkas on the beach really a problem>
Only if you are a woman, I guess...
<Id ask you to try and separate more fundamentalism with conservatism.>
No thanks. They both suck. One sucks worse, that's all.
Much of the rest of the civilized world is turning MORE liberal...why is this one religion making the world MORE conservative. Name a region ever where an increasingly Conservative Islamic government turned LESS conservative?
<Ultimately the only thing that will prove to you that the liberation and growth of prominence of Islam in the Arab world is not going to produce more Irans or Saudis, or even heightened aggression towards Israel, is time.>
I'm not concerned about Israel. They all hate Israel - more or less conservative. Israel will whup their asses EVERY time, so I'm not concerned. My concern is for PEOPLE. Especially minorities & women. They get fucked every way but good when a society gets MORE conservative, and ESPECIALLY with Islam.
<But you should have an open mind when you see Turkey is not degenerating but improving on most fronts.>
Yeah, that's why they are making abortion harder to get. Yeah. "improving". Right.
'“We are turning East, politically and economically,” said Tahir Berrakkarasu, director of a local business association. “Today’s administration is against alcohol, basically, because they think it’s immoral.”'
www.chezchiara.com/2011/10/...both.html
But, you know more than this guy. What does he know, 'eh? All I had to do was one simple search and this was the first thing that came up. Obviously, these analysts are idiots, too...
www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx
These guys, too?
turkishpoliticsupdates.wordpress.com/
More whining women, 'eh?
jezebel.com/5906109/now-...womens-rights
Even more of them here. What do THEY know? They should shut up and give it a chance, right, Elo?
www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26...turkey.html
Need I find more? I could find fifty more. But...you'd not listen to ONE of them. Why? Because your agenda is towards this reality in your head that it's not getting more conservative...and that even if it IS, it's not really that bad, after all!
Whatevs. You know more than everyone else.
<My concern is for PEOPLE. Especially minorities & women>
ok starting with that concern we can see the AKP is clearly working hard to improve the situation for minorities, making big efforts to resolve things with both the Kurds and Armenian's, this is from an American Jewish Israeli expert on this subject from Jerusalem University -
<According to many scholars, including Reşat Kasaba and Murat Somer, the conflict between Turkey and the Kurds has been fought along ethnic and political lines. However, the historic exclusion of religion from Turkey’s political sphere prevented Islam from precipitating better relations. Long restrained by Kemalist governments that regulated the influence of religion on public life, the introduction of Islam into political discourse reflects a new chapter in Turkish politics. This shift has opened the door to massive reforms in Turkey, and the calming of historically tense relations between the Turkish state and its Kurdish population.
www.thewashingtonreview.org/arti...html>
Its also important to note that the previous military dictatorship establishment has passionately fought against the AKPs attempts to improve things for minorities, they would rather go back to there old policy of repressing them, torturing them and executing them, seeing Turkish people as inherently superior, the AKP does not have this problem and is pushing in the opposite direction.
Clearly then we can see in Turkey conservative Islam has made strong efforts to improve things for minorities. Of course the situation is the opposite in Saudi where minorities are barely allowed to exist, highlighting again what i say, that conservative Islam and fundamentalism are very different indeed.
Now that i have shown you the facts on that then there will be little point in carrying on this debate if you deny the reality of what conservative Islams approach to minorities is in Turkey, if your just going to lie about things when presented the facts theres no point.
As to domestic violence in Turkey.
Not only did i show you that the AKP have put forward legislation to make it much easier to prosectue domestic violence, to increase womans rights, and also to make the police legally responsible for cases of domestic violence that are reported to it a few months ago, facts again your trying your best to ingore, it has also installed a special domestic violence unit comprised of woman to further enforce it.
So whilst its true that a MINORITY in Turkey are fundamentalist and a MINORITY in Turkey are engaged in domestic violence, the moderate mainstream AKP are directly and aggressively trying to combat this, when your dishonestly trying to imply there part of a sexist push against woman.
Even the Islamic Religious establishment in Turkey is recently directly trying to combat sexism by condemning later bits of Islam that were added 3 century later to Islam that gave it some sexist strains -
www.hurriyetdailynews.com/islam...d.aspx
It is NOT true what you say about most of the world apart from Islam going towards American style Liberalism.
In Clash of the Civlizations the head of Haravards International stuides quotes people like the Prime Minster or Singapre who said something like while western cities are degenerating into crime, drug problems, and slipping educational standards, much of the east which has a strong sense of collective and individual responsibility is pushing hard and fast forward and improving raipidly.
In India many of the middle classes are increasingly turning towards religion, traditional values and turning up for work as doctors or lawyers in traditional dress. In China there is a strong sense of collective responsibility where individuals are supposed to put the collective good above that of the individual in there culture.
The Abortion issue is a non issue by the way as unlike Christians in America, there are not many in Turkey who think Islam prohibits early abortion, as many do in America -
www.hurriyetdailynews.com/an-ab...-.aspx
I personally however have some issues with late abortions myself. Clearly there does come a point where a baby is an individual who life should be protected and for me that happens quite a few months before birth. But the debate about this in Turkey is not as extreme as in America.
I have more issues however with societies which breed many unwanted pregnancies such as teenage pregnancies, and then just kill the feoteus as if its something to bin, or otherwise produce social problems with unwanted children in families that cannot cope, and I will get on to stats about that in the US soon.
But clearly you feel American Liberalism to be far superior. well lets take a look at how thats playing out. With Turkey we were on the subject of violence, so lets start there, just look for the graphs in these pages -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...olence
imprisonment -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...onment
teenage births, and clearly stats on teenage abortions would be similarly high -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...births
drug abuse -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...-abuse
mental health -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...health
child well being -
www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/e...-being
the list goes on with education and similar and most other social stats very poor.
Not really a picture of cultural superiority is it Andrew ?
When a culture promotes liberalisim where individuals are told they can do what they want wihout any sense of collective of individual responsiibilty this is what happens.
In Islam there is a strong sense of individual and collective responsibility promoted.
Now i am not saying the Islamic model has things right. Sweden or Japan has it right where they promote both liberalisim AND indivdual and collective responsibility.
But i find it absurd that you would preach cultural superiority to the Turks when American cities are currently falling apart at the seams with horrendous social problems.
My family could safely live in Istanbul if i chose, Istanbul being one of the safest cities in Europe now, but id have real concerns about locating my family in Cities like LA, Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia etc who have horrendous crime stats.
You have millions living in tents right now, homeless or who cant afford health care because your business people are told freedom comes first and they can do what they want without any sense of responsibility. This kind of liberalism is corrosive and rots societies from the inside.
Turks do not want that model, thanks but no thanks.
They do not want the Saudi fundamentalist model either however.
Try to ban alcohol in Turkey, or put the price up more, and the AKP would lose the next election. Currently a bottle of local beer in Turkey is only 80 pence, or 50 cents, hardly prohibitive as one of your article claims, and no different to what for example Sweden, Norway, and Finland have done because the also consider it a social ill. But if they went further the AKP would be stoped in the ballot box by Turks. Which also makes your claim that this is being forced onto Turkish people abusurd, just like in Sweden, it was the democratic choice of most of the people to vote in a government who does that.
No, this is how it is - In the west many of the youth are taking to the streets and protesting the current system is terrible on responsibility, they demand much more responsibility on economics, equality and the environment and of course they are right.
In the Muslim worth the youth are taking to the streets and demanding more freedom and democracy and individual rights. Of course they are right too.
Both groups of youth will over the coming decades with many hurdles get there way, which will be taking the best of both worlds.
But in most of the developing world, from Turkey to China to India to Egypt to South America the focus is going to be on economic growth, Turkey have got off to a fantastic start on that this last 10 years.
first link posted above is wrong, here it is -
www.thewashingtonreview.org/arti....html
<<Yes. Yes I am. I believe that ANY conservative religion/movement will result in "a dark cloud".
In other words, your words regarding the Islamic religion also apply to American GOP fundamentalist Christian politics. Sorry, I don't see it as an excuse to oppose Democracy in a country attempting to garner the freedom of choice we all take for granted here in the US.
And notice that Andrew is STILL largely ignored the fact that the MB went from 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections to less than 25% of the vote today. They are quickly approaching that 20% number they garnered during the Mubarak years. Andrew, why did you find these numbers relevant in the parliamentary elections but not in the Presidential election? You change your standards to suit your argument, inconsistent to say the least.
<<<my point Andrew is the MB in Egypt now will not really be fundamentalists but conservative Islam - there is a thin line between the two>
If you say so, buddy. >>
Clearly the conservatives in Turkey are not nearly as extreme as say the Saudi form of Wahhabism. Do you understand this distinction?
Elo, I'm not going to go point to point with you on this. We can all find ways to make our side look better.
All I can do is post information from people IN TURKEY, and let the reader decide.
So...all that work was fruitless.
<In other words, your words regarding the Islamic religion also apply to American GOP fundamentalist Christian politics.>
Yes, Jeffy. Yes. It also applies to some jerk on my street. Crazy how it works like that, 'eh? Being consistent? WEIRD!
<Sorry, I don't see it as an excuse to oppose Democracy>
Strawman. Where did I try to "oppose Democracy"?
<Clearly the conservatives in Turkey are not nearly as extreme as say the Saudi form of Wahhabism. Do you understand this distinction?>
Strawman. When did I say that they were the same?
<<Yes, Jeffy. Yes. It also applies to some jerk on my street. Crazy how it works like that, 'eh? Being consistent? WEIRD!
The key difference being that your is and has been an argument against democracy in the Middle East. Which is of course why you are ignoring that the MB share of the vote shrunk from 50% to less than 25%, thereby confirming my own predication.
By the way, is calling me "jeffy" a lame attempt at talking down to me or what? Grow up.
<<rawman. Where did I try to "oppose Democracy"?
You have been opposing the Arab spring and Democracy in the region from the get go, as Elo can confirm. Please don't once again run away from your own positions.
<<
<Clearly the conservatives in Turkey are not nearly as extreme as say the Saudi form of Wahhabism. Do you understand this distinction?>
Strawman. When did I say that they were the same?<<
I did not say you said they were the same, I ASKED if you understand this distinction. Learn to fucking read dude.
<All I can do is post information from people IN TURKEY, and let the reader decide. >
youd be better of going to globally respected experts or things like EU progress reports, respected think tanks on the region etc than just getting stuff from the mass media. Like you many journalists understanding of these issues is shallow compared to globally respected academic experts.
But it wasnt fruitless Andrew as Im learning more about the world in making them posts. Its funny though you have a tendency to do this these days, start a debate with me about something with newspaper articles and then when i come back with more quality information like EU progress reports, respected think thanks and globally recognised experts you then just ignore them and say oh you dont actually want to debate after all.
I guess some people dont like the ideas they hold challenged, upto you dude.
<<<
<Clearly the conservatives in Turkey are not nearly as extreme as say the Saudi form of Wahhabism. Do you understand this distinction?>
I personally believe that some of the moderate Islamic values right now are good for a developing country like Turkey working hard to be a developed country, they put a strong emphasis on individual and community responsibility, something that i think some of the liberal western countries have lost to some extent, a sense of responsibility, especially over the last 30 years or so, but something that will probably serve Turkey well over the next decade or two.
That being said i think countries like Sweden and Japan who emphasise community and individual responsibility AND individual freedom liberalism have the best system. Religious systems like Islam can encourage too much dogma and restrict peoples freedom, though i strongly suspect Islam is going to go through many changes now.
Religion has a bad name with many young liberals now, understandably perhaps, but people forget that for example many of the reformers of the Victorian period were Christians, or at least Religiously inspired, .and then look at people like Ghandi and Martin Luther.
I really believe globally we are heading to a time when different cultures are going to learn from each other anyway as a more global culture gradually takes shape, you can see the Muslim world now is demanding freedom whilst many in the western world are demanding more responsibility from the system.
<All I can do is post information from people IN TURKEY, and let the reader decide>
if its local knowledge you want then Mustafa Akyol is one of Turkeys most respected journalists, respected and known globally, i posted one of his articles above. Considering I have about 30 relatives who live in Turkey Andrew, from young secular professional bio scientists to traditional religious working class people, a very diverse bunch, and my brother goes there every year as he has property there, he has friends there, as does my Father, I am certainly not short of local direct knowledge from diverse sources dude.
<And notice that Andrew is STILL largely ignored the fact that the MB went from 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections to less than 25% of the vote today. >
this is the point to me you can tell which way the winds are blowing in Egypt, its just very hard to predict whether the MB will evolve into something like the AKP and lead Egypt well and be popular because of it, OR whether a more progressive party will form and get stronger and push them out the way.
I think both are possible, and probably both to some extent will happen. The MB will evolve and change but a strong progressive party will form to compete with them - utimatly democracy works best if there is strong competition to keep people on there toes.
This is a danger in Turkey with the AKP so strong now for a decade, it would be better for Turkey if the opposition got its act together.
One thing im not totaly happy about with Turkey is inequality is growing and there is not a very strong left in Turkey. Thats not good. This is something different in Egypt, Egypt has a tradition of the left being stronger than Turkey for the last 80 years.
<youd be better of going to globally respected experts or things like EU progress reports>
Yes. Let's ignore these stories. Good idea.
<I guess some people dont like the ideas they hold challenged, upto you dude.>
Oh, Elo. Elo elo elo.
<I am certainly not short of local direct knowledge from diverse sources dude.>
Yes. Let's ignore those stories. Good idea.
Oh, speaking of Egypt...
news.yahoo.com/mob-attack...911011.html
<You have been opposing the Arab spring and Democracy in the region from the get go, as Elo can confirm. Please don't once again run away from your own positions.>
Semantics. Opposition is different than is questioning it or being concerned by it I don't oppose someone's ability to vote how they want, but I am concerned about the effects of this freedom. Democracy has not always led to a better governmental system...
<I did not say you said they were the same, I ASKED if you understand this distinction. Learn to fucking read dude.>
No. There are two sentences there. The first suggests that I disagree simply by the statement. And, since I never correlated Turkey's advancing conservative government with Saudi Arabia's...well, why then bring it up? You're suggestion is that I have made that correlation.
<Yes. Let's ignore these stories. Good idea. >
Andrew I addressed every point of them articles you posted in my long post above as you well know with detailed and reliable information, you then completely ignored that saying you didnt want to debate this.
So its not me ignoring anything but you, what your saying makes little sense, as is often the case with you these days.
As to the march demanding greater equality for woman in Egypt, i think its great woman are mobilising more in these countries like that, and not that surprising that some of the men in these countries oppose that, exactly some men did when woman marched for there rights in England and America 100 years ago and in the decades following.
On that subject as i say the AKP in Turkey have recently enacted strong legislation to protect woman's rights, make it far easier to prosecute abuses, make police legally responsibly for pursing abusers, and installed a special all female domestic violence unit of specially trained woman who are sensitive to the issue.
In Tunisia the leader of the new moderate Islamic party has said he "wants to protect woman's rights to wear a bikini on the beach or to wear a burka on the beach". Even in deepest darkest Saudi woman are getting the vote, and woman protest about not being able to drive etc.so even in the worst places like Saudi, where they have much more work to do than Egypt or Turkey, things are starting to change and moving forward.
Clearly in the entire region woman are on the march and already making substantial victories.
So if your applauding this as a good thing, so do i dude.
However as I pointed out to you above with things like violent assaults, crime and other social problems you have a lot more to be worried about in some American cities now Andrew, as the stats i posted above show that you ignored, than you would in cities like Istanbul or even Cairo for that matter. Strange that you seem to obsess so much about the Egyptian or Turkish problems and ignore your own problems with things like violent assaults ? How come dude, is that because the people committing the assaults are not Muslim ?
as your concerned about assaults on woman Andrew, here are some statistics on Egypt and America -
www.nationmaster.com/graph/c...r-capita
As you can see Egypt scores very low,
but in America there is more to worry about -
<Fact #1: 18.3 % of women in the United States have survived a completed or attempted rape. Of these, 12.3% were younger than age 12 when they were first raped, and 29.9% were between the ages of 11 and 17. (National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey 2010)
Fact #2: 22 million women in the United States have been raped in their lifetime. 63.84% of women who reported being raped, physically assaulted, and/or stalked since age 18 were victimized by a current or former husband, cohabiting partner, boyfriend, or date. (National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey 2010)
www.feminist.com/antiviolence/facts.html
>
Id say you have more to worry about in American cities, wouldn't you ?
here, you can try these UN statistics Andrew, they list Egypt, Turkey and America amongst others -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape...ted_States
America has a 20 times higher rate than Turkey and around a 200 times higher rate to Egypt, even assuming there are more unreported cases in Turkey and Egypt America clearly has a far bigger problem.
Look at your own social problems dude before you point your finger at others.
....so we can see from the above statistics that a liberal culture that promotes the idea that you can do whatever the hell you want, is not as good at stopping such social ills as rape as moderate Islamic conservative culture which heavily encouraged the idea of social and individual responsibility.
<Andrew I addressed every point of them articles you posted in my long post above as you well know with detailed and reliable information, you then completely ignored that saying you didnt want to debate this.>
No, I gotcha! No problem. These reporters IN Turkey are wrong. They don't have access to your analysts & family members, so they don't really know what's going on. Got it. No problem. You should let them know.
<Look at your own social problems dude before you point your finger at others.>
No thanks. I'll feel free to point out facts as they arise. Thanks though.
<....so we can see from the above statistics that a liberal culture that promotes the idea that you can do whatever the hell you want, is not as good at stopping such social ills as rape as moderate Islamic conservative culture which heavily encouraged the idea of social and individual responsibility.>
Would you consider that rape is underreported in these cultures? Maybe a little? Just a tad? A possibliity?
“Victims are always told, it’s your fault: you were out too late, your dressed wrong. So rape is severely, severely under-reported. Police are not friendly to women. If you report a rape to them, they will immediately suspect you of being a prostitute.”
www.thedailybeast.com/article...nce.html
"“Society does not accept such things being aired in public because they consider it too personal and too private,” explains Hafsa Halawa, an Egyptian lawyer....Violations against women are therefore hugely underreported in Egypt -- one recent report from 2003 found as many as 98 percent of rape and sexual assault cases are not reported to authorities."
marysbeagooddogblog.blogspot.com/2...ml
That was Egypt. So...yeah.
But, I'm sure that Turkey is MUCH better...
---------
The Journal’s report noted that a 2008 survey found that “42% of Turkish women said they had been victims of physical or sexual violence,” adding that “in 2009, Turkey became the first state the European Court of Human Rights has held in violation of its obligations to protect women from domestic violence.” ...
The U.S. government does little but knows quite a bit about what is going on. In its 2010 human rights report, the State Department found:
The law prohibits rape, including spousal rape, with prison terms of two to seven years for sexual assault. However, the government did not effectively enforce the law. . . . Human rights organizations claimed that cases of rape were heavily underreported.
Violence against women, including spousal abuse, was a serious and widespread problem both in rural and urban areas. Women’s NGOs reported that more than 150,000 women were victims of domestic violence between 2001 and 2005, the latest period for which statistics were available. . . .
Due to penalties for honor killings, family members sometimes pressured girls to commit suicide in order to preserve the family’s honor. . . .
---------------
Oh. Wait. Crap.
But, it's getting better I guess. That's what you'll say. You'll find statistics that make you feel better about it getting better and that will mean that you are 'right' and I am 'wrong'.
Good job, Elo. Keep up the good work.
<<<You have been opposing the Arab spring and Democracy in the region from the get go, as Elo can confirm. Please don't once again run away from your own positions.>
Semantics. <<
There are no semantics involved, that is just your illogical excuse when you don't have an answer.
<<Opposition is different than is questioning it or being concerned by it
You have flat out opposed it bud. But as we know you have trouble keeping track of your own positions.
<<<I did not say you said they were the same, I ASKED if you understand this distinction. Learn to fucking read dude.>
No. There are two sentences there. The first suggests that I disagree simply by the statement<>
Two senteces with a question at the end asking if you understand the distinction between those two statements, that in no way implies that you disagree with anything, you are failing basic logic.....again.
<<And, since I never correlated Turkey's advancing conservative government with Saudi Arabia's...well, why then bring it up?
Because you are speaking of the dangers of fundamentalism and have done so in such a manner as to suggest that Egypt is heading that direction. When asked for an example of successful Democracy, you dismiss Turkey as becoming a fundamentalist shithole. This is why the distinction question above is important, because you yourself have blurred the lines and have not made any such distinction between the two.
Oh, Jeff.
Do people in your real life walk away from you as they do here? You're insistence on being right no matter the cost HAS to cost you a lot.
Again, just saying you're right...that does not actually make you right. You can put as many words in my mouth as you like or make an argument for why you're right all damned day if it makes you feel better, but that can't be good for you. You're like a bulimic trying to justify throwing up.
<<Do people in your real life walk away from you as they do here?
Once again you can't rebut what I have written and you resort to speaking of my personal life, of which you know absolutely nothing.
<<You can put as many words in my mouth
Are you now saying that you support the Arab spring and Democracy in the Middle East? Yes or no?
<<Look at your own social problems dude before you point your finger at others.>
No thanks. >
well there we have it clear as day, an admission that you want to focus on the social problems of the Muslim world whilst completely ignoring social problems of America even when there worse. That Speaks for itself, gross hypocrisy.
<“Victims are always told, it’s your fault>
yes and with the huge amount of rape victims in America you seem to be saying they either dont exist or your not interested in them or the problem, even though there 200 times worse than Egypt !!!!!!!!!!! Sure in Egypt they may be a lot more under-reported, but 200 times more under-reported ?? I doubt it dude, i doubt it very much, at the very least we can say that America has a BIG problem like this just as serious as Egypt if not much worse.
Yet again you want to paint a FALSE picture of America superior on these social issues when the statistics show its not. The statistics show your cities are crumbling and falling apart socially.
And yes, here is the thing, things ARE improving in places like Turkey, but on social issues, like crime, rape, murder, drug dependency, imprisonment, mental health etc, America is NOT really improving, though New York has had some improvement, though mostly just through throwing much more people in prison, cities like LA, Chicago and Washington still have horrendous crime levels.
Im afraid your claim to cultural superiority falls down badly when you look at the mess your cities are in. Face the facts and the statistics Andrew. The kind of liberalism where anything goes is not producing safe cities in America with social harmony or social cohesion.
Istanbul is doing way better than many American cities on many social levels. The reason i point this out is because you assert your form of liberalism is inherently superior socially and as a culture to there's, that just is not born out by the statistics.
Im hardly presenting Turkey or Egypt as model ideal societies however, sure, of course they do have issues to work on with sexism and sometimes intolerance, its places like Japan that are more ideal models for social harmony, not Egypt or even Turkey, but American cities superior to cities like Cairo and Istanbul on social issues ? i think not, the Stats prove America has just as much problems if not more so than the Muslim world on many social issues.
As I say my family could live very safely in Istanbul - AND freely, not so in many parts of your cities, not safely that is, maybe freely.
But hey, ignore the statistics they must be wrong, because Andrew and America are superior.
<No, I gotcha! No problem. These reporters IN Turkey are wrong. They don't have access to your analysts & family members, so they don't really know what's going on. Got it. No problem. You should let them know. >
Andrew, your method of debate of saying all the things you post are right, and all the things i post are wrong is a bit primitive to say the least, you think the articles your posting are more valid than the experts and articles im posted, fine, but dont come out with this senseless bullshit about me ignoring stuff, I addressed your points, you ignored mine, though with so much ovwhelming evidence against your claims of superiority, i can understand why youd want to ingore the evidence.
<Oh. Wait. Crap.
But, it's getting better I guess. That's what you'll say. You'll find statistics that make you feel better >
Andrew i have no problem seeing Egypt has work to do on domestic violence and sexism, no problem with that and id support any group who done it, and am just as keen to see improvement there as you, Sure they have problems to work on. What i DO have a problem with is your false claim that things are much better in America, there not, the statistics show things are worse in fact, your claim to a superior culture does not match facts and stats.
moderate Islamic conservative cultures do not produce worse social problems to American style liberalism - the facts prove that. Be in denial all you like, but American stats make that obvious.
<<<<Look at your own social problems dude before you point your finger at others.>
No thanks. >
well there we have it clear as day, an admission that you want to focus on the social problems of the Muslim world whilst completely ignoring social problems of America even when there worse. That Speaks for itself, gross hypocrisy. <<
Spot on Elo!
<Are you now saying that you support the Arab spring and Democracy in the Middle East? Yes or no?>
That was never the point. Strawman. I never made that assertion.
<<<Look at your own social problems dude before you point your finger at others.>
<No thanks. >
<<<well there we have it clear as day, an admission that you want to focus on the social problems of the Muslim world whilst completely ignoring social problems of America even when there worse.>>>
Oh, Elo. I apologize. I did not explain that well enough. I meant, that I don't want to discuss it with you. Sorry that you did not understand that. It's a waste of time trying to have a discussion with someone that will just ignore any information that goes against their bias. You just will post as much stuff that makes your point, without regard to reality. For instance, you'll just ignore what the Turkish press says, because your family & some analysts make a different point. Fine with me, Mr. Ostrich. I don't give a shit. Ignore what you want, but I ain't a'gonna be there to argue with you about it. Y'r like a little kid who does want to eat spinach, because the family down the street says that it's bad for you.
<<“Victims are always told, it’s your fault>
<yes and with the huge amount of rape victims in America you seem to be saying...>
See? There's a clear example. Instead of answering to what is going on there, you are trying to ameliorate the facts about Turkey by transferring guilt to America - who is not at all in the discussion. Sorry man - you pointed to these countries as doing better in this context, and then when I show that most rape is unreported...you just will point to somewhere else to change the subject, INSTEAD of admitting that you were wrong about this point. oops
<even though there 200 times worse than Egypt !!!!!!!!!!!>
You're saying that "200 times worse than Egypt !!!!!!!!!!!", even though we know that over 90% of rapes apparently are NOT REPORTED THERE.
<Sure in Egypt they may be a lot more under-reported, but 200 times more under-reported ?? I doubt it dude, i doubt it very much,>
Of course you doubt it. Such information or reality goes against your bias.
<Yet again you want to paint a FALSE picture of America superior on these social issues when the statistics show its not.>
Strawman. I never stated America. I said that women have it worse, and rape is one of the problems endemic to any women living anywhere, and in Muslim countries, rape is WAY underreported. I posed TWO stories, both emenintely believable - yet you will ignore them. 90% unreported they say, and you say..."I doubt it dude, i doubt it very much,..." That's your method. Just pretend that it's not true. A perfect example.
<As I say my family could live very safely in Istanbul>
Maybe. Maybe not. There's no way to prove that either way. So, it's a perfect argument for you.
<but dont come out with this senseless bullshit about me ignoring stuff,>
In short: Don't accuse me of what I do.
<moderate Islamic conservative cultures do not produce worse social problems to American style liberalism - the facts prove that. Be in denial all you like, but American stats make that obvious.>
You keep believing that, Elo. Even in Turkey, where women's rights are getting better, it's also showing trends that the religious conservatives are gaining power. So, how long do you think that'll last?
""A series of recent moves show that the conservative tendency has the upper hand and faces no opposition," said Marc Pierini, a former head of the EU diplomatic team in Turkey..."He fuelled this debate himself recently with certains utterances, one example being that he and his party wanted to see 'the emergence of a religious generation'," noted Semih Idiz, a leader writer for Milliyet newspaper."
www.aina.org/news/20120610125712.htm
And, I am sure that they are just worried over nothing. I mean, your family and analysts are the only sources that we need on that point, 'eh?
<And, I am sure that they are just worried over nothing. I mean, your family and analysts are the only sources that we need on that point, 'eh? >
Andrew your perfectly entitled to believe the Assyrian International News Agency is a more reliable source than the Council of Foreign relations - just don't expect me to think so too dude.
<<<Are you now saying that you support the Arab spring and Democracy in the Middle East? Yes or no?>
That was never the point. Strawman. I never made that assertion.
A question by definition is not indicating you made any assertion, you just can't muster the ability to answer a simple question and are screaming "strawman" in an illogical manner. a question is not a strawman argument bud. Do you or do you not support Democracy in the Middle East? What exactly is your position? Simple question that requires a simple yes or no answer.
<<Sorry that you did not understand that. It's a waste of time trying to have a discussion with someone that will just ignore any information that goes against their bias.
The very fact that you took the time to write this long response indicates otherwise, you just make excuses for your inability to address straightforward points and questions directed at you.
<<Don't accuse me of what I do.
Fruedian slip it seems.... Yes.....don't accuse Andrew of the things he actually does!!! LOL!
<<where women's rights are getting better, it's also showing trends that the religious conservatives are gaining power.
Same thing here in the US in 2010. In the spirit of clarification, what specifically are you arguing against Andrew? Conservatives gaining power in Turkey, as they have here in the US, demonstrates what specifically?
<Do you or do you not support Democracy in the Middle East? What exactly is your position? Simple question that requires a simple yes or no answer.>
That's not a yes/no answer. It's a nuanced, involved issue. It depends on a lot of things, whether or not I support it. In Afghanistan, that means something different than in Egypt...every country is different.
at it's most basic, democracy is rule by the people. do you want people to rule themselves or do you want dictators and authoritarian thugs to rule them? you're hedging.
<<That's not a yes/no answer. It's a nuanced, involved issue.
Then provide us with a nuanced answer and as to what direction you lean. Because thusfar you have only provided arguments against Democracy in the Middle East, which would naturally lead one to the conclusion that you oppose it.
<<It depends on a lot of things, whether or not I support it.
So you are saying that you are not sure if you support it or not?
<<In Afghanistan, that means something different than in Egypt...every country is different.
What does it mean in Afghanistan? What does it mean in Egypt?
<at it's most basic, democracy is rule by the people. do you want people to rule themselves or do you want dictators and authoritarian thugs to rule them? you're hedging.>
Gerbil, it's not that easy. What happened in Germany in '32? You want to say that you are 100% for that. That you are 100% for the Germans picking the Nazis? Democracy often is bad, Gerbil. Democracy is a human right, but the results are not always positive, and can be REALLY negative.
Thinking people do not deal in absolutes. The world is not black & white as you are portraying it to be.
<<Gerbil, it's not that easy. What happened in Germany in '32?
Are you equating the MB did the Nazi Party?
<<Democracy often is bad,
Actually examples such as the Nazi Party are rare. So the idea that "Democracy is OFTEN bad" is just not supported by history.
<<Democracy is a human right
Then speak about it as such rather than spending 99.9% of your time attempting to demonize those seeking to extract themselves from under the boot of dictatorial rule.
<<Thinking people do not deal in absolutes.
Are you now saying Gerbil is not a "thinking person"?
<<The world is not black & white as you are portraying it to be.
I don't see where Gerbil has painted the world as black and white, yours is yet another unfounded accusation.
<<<So you are saying that you are not sure if you support it or not?>
Jeff, shh.<<
One of the strangest responses I have seen on tribe, one you use every single time I say something you don't want to hear.
<<Reasonable people are having a reasonable discussion.
You and Gerbil are having the same exact conversation you and I are having, ie., determining where you actually stand. So your accusation is illogical.
<< This is not another opportunity for you to start one of your bullshit arguments. Shhh.
So your saying that Gerbils question is him also starting a "bullshit argument"? You certainly do avoid the tough questions with B.S., excuses. I mean really, you have not even been able to provide a nuanced answer, just nothing but avoidence.
<Are you equating the MB did the Nazi Party?>
Oh, oh, lordy. Jeff. Jeff jeff jeff.
See if you can follow along:
Gerbil: <at it's most basic, democracy is rule by the people. do you want people to rule themselves or do you want dictators and authoritarian thugs to rule them? you're hedging.>
Me: Gerbil, it's not that easy. What happened in Germany in '32? You want to say that you are 100% for that. That you are 100% for the Germans picking the Nazis? Democracy often is bad, Gerbil. Democracy is a human right, but the results are not always positive, and can be REALLY negative.
Get it?
<Actually examples such as the Nazi Party are rare. So the idea that "Democracy is OFTEN bad" is just not supported by history.>
So what? We should just ignore them, then? That's your solution? Because it HAS happened, we should ignore them because it does not happen more often? Should we always do that? Anytime that history has a lesson, it serves as an example of what is possible. Ignore history at your own peril.
<One of the strangest responses I have seen on tribe, one you use every single time I say something you don't want to hear.>
Jeff, I don't want to "hear" you at all, just sometimes I find that humorous.
<So your saying that Gerbils question is him also starting a "bullshit argument"?>
Jeff, don't try to paint what I have done in your own image of what it is that I have done. I'll speak for myself, thanks. Gerbil's too smart to be as dumb as ... well, you know the rest.
<I mean really, you have not even been able to provide a nuanced answer, just nothing but avoidence.>
Shhh.
<<Oh, oh, lordy. Jeff. Jeff jeff jeff.
Saying "lordy" and repeating peoples names, as is your inclination, ultimately says absolutely nothing, it only reinforces your constant snarky tone. My question was absolutely appropriate, seeking clarificaiton as to the intention of your words is absolutely appropriate. So please do drop the overblown dram act.
<<Democracy often is bad, Gerbil. Democracy is a human right, but the results are not always positive, and can be REALLY negative.
Get it? <>
I absolutely understand what happened in Germany, but reality is such that examples such as this are rare, contrary to your assertion that Democracy is OFTEN bad.
<<<Actually examples such as the Nazi Party are rare. So the idea that "Democracy is OFTEN bad" is just not supported by history.>
So what? We should just ignore them, then?<<
No, we should recognize instances such as this as the exception to the rule regarding Democracy, and we should not exaggerate such rare instances as somehow being representative of what "often" happens.
<<So what? We should just ignore them, then? That's your solution?
Once again you ask a question, then assume the answer, and then attribute that as a solution that I have put forth. I have put forth no such solution that involves ignoring history, quite the opposite really. The Democratization of the vast majority of countries in the world has been a positive force, regardless of any exceptions to the rule.
<<we should ignore them because it does not happen more often?
I spoke nothing of ignoring history, you are once again making things up. Anything is possible, but a country and/or region should not shrink from attempting that which has been ultimately good for most of the world because of such exceptions to the rule. My support lands solidly behind that which is historically and demonstrably good for the vast majority of countries that are now Democratic.
<<Jeff, I don't want to "hear" you at all
Funny that you are consistent in ignoring the same specific points.....over and over, and the fact that you repeatedly respond to other items in the same thread. This demonstrates that your excuse is B.S. and that ultimately your obfuscation is point specific.
<<<So your saying that Gerbils question is him also starting a "bullshit argument"?>
Jeff, don't try to paint what I have done in your own image of what it is that I have done.>>
Your sentence does not even make sense. My question and point is the same as Gerbils.
<<Gerbil's too smart to be as dumb as ... well, you know the rest.
Ultimately you should stop with the B.S. snarky attitude, and your attempts to skirt the rules of this tribe with constant backhanded personalized insults, as the above example demontrates. Grow up.
<<<I mean really, you have not even been able to provide a nuanced answer, just nothing but avoidence.>
Shhh. >>
Translation: I can't put forth a substantive response or even a full word in english, so I will just type a sound.
am i for the people being able to vote for themselves? absolutely.
am i supportive of what happened AFTER the people voted? of course not.
besides...your argument has holes. yes, the german people voted for nazis in the 1933 elections, just as many people in the united states vote for white supremacists, black supremacists and all sorts of riffraff who probably shouldn't be given the reins of power. the problem is that the nazis weren't elected into or given a majority and, subsequently, under hitler seized power and turned germany into a totalitarian state, not a continuing democracy. also, hitler was appointed as chancellor, then basically took over the government from all the other ruling parties, and rendered those ruling parties obsolete.
plain and simple, the nazis SEIZED power. they weren't elected.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi...e_of_power
besides that, my point wasn't intended as a rebuke of democracy being nuanced. my point is that , AT ITS MOST BASIC, democracy is rule by the people.
<I absolutely understand what happened in Germany, but reality is such that examples such as this are rare, contrary to your assertion that Democracy is OFTEN bad.>
Oh, well. As long as they are "rare", you have convinced me! I mean, "rare" and all! Well, why the fuck does anyone have to worry!? I mean, it's just the Muslim Brotherhood & aligned Fundamentalists.
<I spoke nothing of ignoring history, you are once again making things up.>
Um...see the question mark after each sentence? That suggests that a question is being asked, not a statement being made.
<My support lands solidly behind that which is historically and demonstrably good for the vast majority of countries that are now Democratic.>
Sure. And good for you.
<Ultimately you should stop with the B.S. snarky attitude,>
Jeff, don't sell yourself short. You've earned it.
<Grow up.>
Too late for that.
<Translation: I can't put forth a substantive response or even a full word in english, so I will just type a sound.>
Shh. shh.
<besides...your argument has holes.>
No. My point was that the party that is initially given power can grow into something that is far, far worse. We already have hints where the MB will go. I posed yesterday quotes about what their goals are, and they ain't the stuff that is for international consumption. They speak of taking over the Middle East, they speak of Fundamentalism, NOT the touchy-feely stuff that they speak of to the press. You can believe them if you want...I don't. Why? Because I read the other things that they say when they think that they are speaking to a private audience.
So, where the Nazi party was first elected without the rhetoric that caused WWII and the effects of WWII, it was a democratic action which put them in power.
<plain and simple, the nazis SEIZED power. they weren't elected.>
They had to be elected before they "SEIZED power".
<my point is that , AT ITS MOST BASIC, democracy is rule by the people.>
Yup.
< For instance, you'll just ignore what the Turkish press says, >
Andrew, it doesnt matter how many times you tell the same lie, it doesnt make it true, everyone in this thread can see that every single point your articles made i took up and answered - not ignored.
You then completely ignored the responses i made with sources from the Council on Foreign relations, to the Middle east expert from LSE.
So we can see now that as well as ignoring all the sources i post, you are also lie about this.
so Andrews basic proposition is that he suspects the Muslim Brotherhood party might turn out like the Nazi party so he thinks we should support dictatorship not democracy in Egypt. (and of course that's got nothing to do with Israel).
I think its time to move on from this kind of bigoted stupidity.
<<Oh, well. As long as they are "rare", you have convinced me!
What I have done is corrected your false inference that this type of thing "often" happens.
<<Well, why the fuck does anyone have to worry!?
Yet again with the dishonest straw man arguments, none of us have indicated that there is nothing to worry about. Democracy should always be vigilant.
<<Um...see the question mark after each sentence? That suggests that a question is being asked, not a statement being made.
Then it is a dumb question being that none of us even hinted at any such thing.
<<No. My point was that the party that is initially given power can grow into something that is far, far worse.
That is the case in any Democracy.
<Andrew, it doesnt matter how many times you tell the same lie, it doesnt make it true, everyone in this thread can see that every single point your articles made i took up and answered - not ignored.>
Elo. You ignored what the posts that I pasted were saying. All you do is keep going back to your family (like that means ANYTHING) and some analysts. I post stuff from TURKISH reporters, and you ignore it. Don't blame me for pointing this laughable bullshit out to you.
<You then completely ignored the responses i made with sources from the Council on Foreign relations, to the Middle east expert from LSE.>
Nonsense. I didn't ignore that. I just happen to think that Turkish people who are reporters have a different take on it and I happen to trust them more than your analysts.
<so Andrews basic proposition is that he suspects the Muslim Brotherhood party might turn out like the Nazi party so he thinks we should support dictatorship not democracy in Egypt. (and of course that's got nothing to do with Israel).>
Nope. I never said that. What a laughable relation to my statements & beliefs.
<I think its time to move on from this kind of bigoted stupidity.>
How about just base stupidity? Should you want to take a look underneath your feet? To constantly accuse me of racism & bigotry even though I have NEVER written anything bigoted or racist? I don't even see you saying such a thing to Tuk Tuk...yet, you save it for me.
<Then it is a dumb question being that none of us even hinted at any such thing.>
Yes you did, because that was in response to this, "I spoke nothing of ignoring history, you are once again making things up." I was not "once again making things up", I was asking a question, and that question was, "we should ignore them because it does not happen more often?"
Get in step.
<That is the case in any Democracy.>
It's FAR WORSE when a fundamentalist group has gained power. I have quoted for you statements by MB leaders about taking over the Middle East, I have quoted them talk about war and regaining Jerusalem as their capitol. If you want to hide your head in the sane and keep warm with Elo's wishful thinking about them turning 'moderate', please do. I won't, and neither will those that care for reality more than fantasy.
<Elo. You ignored what the posts that I pasted were saying>
Not agreeing with what you post is not the same as ignoring the points, which you know fine well i DID NOT DO, i addressed them points with other articles that disagreed with them, which is not ignoring something but disagreeing with something. the fact that you either cannot understand the simple difference between "ignore" and "disagree", or are just lying about that to make yet another meaningless point, does not say much for the quality of your debate.
<I just happen to think that Turkish people who are reporters>
I have frequently posted Mustafa Akyol to you who is one of Turkeys most respected Journalist, there are several articles of his ive posted in this very thread combating the trashy articles your posting, again your talking meaningless rubbish.
<They had to be elected before they "SEIZED power".>
sure, but they didn't have nearly as much political power as they did after they seized power. until they seized power, they were a minority party.
<<To constantly accuse me of racism & bigotry even though I have NEVER written anything bigoted or racist?
Except for when you said 'Jeff, shhhh....white men talking here', or something to that effect. Absolutely 100% racist.
<<<Then it is a dumb question being that none of us even hinted at any such thing.>
Yes you did<<
Prove it, shit or get off the pot.
<<Get in step.
Do you mean goose step? As in with you and the other "white men talking here"?
<<<That is the case in any Democracy.>
It's FAR WORSE when a fundamentalist group has gained power. <<
What fundamentalist group gained power in Turkey?
<< I have quoted for you statements by MB leaders about taking over the Middle East
You are pretending that the MB is one contiguous group without differences betweeen the organization in varying countries. Can you quote a recent MB statement in that regard IN Egypt and not in the distant past?
<<If you want to hide your head in the sane
Yes, I prefer sane over insane, so I qill keep my head firmly on the sane side.
