If we leave a nationalist Shiite government similar to the Iranian one would develop. President Muqtada would sign a bunch of oil deals with the Chinese and Russians, plus order a bunch of cool weapons. Iraq would integrate its economy heavily with Iran's and probably kick all US oil majors out of whatever contracts they've finagled under the occupation. Chinese and Russian military advisors would be on the ground, and US troops would be sent home entirely. President Muqtada would enjoy the cushy embassy left behind by America, complete with dairy queen and BK.

In other words, the American empire's strategic worst nightmare, end of the game for the US in the middle east pretty much.

So, once again, leaving is not an option for the empire. Iraq is a FAR more important piece than, say, Vietnam. The empire will fight MUCH harder to keep it.

< Nobody knows, period.>

Nonsense, Kelly. The entire region knows what will happen. I was talking to a Pakistani friend yesterday about this, and she said that everyone at least in her community knows that if we just up and leave, a civil war will break out that she's worried will turn into a regional war. No one in Pakistan who is at all Western-friendly or of the educated class wants us to leave.

There's really no question about it. The Iranians will move in from the East to solidify their power in Iraq, the Turks will move in from the north in order to subdue the Kurds and the Saudis will arm and fund the Sunnis so that they won't be simply driven out of the country. The criminals will work to get their hands on the oil and the fundies will work to take control of the country for Allah.

There's really no question about it. The only question is to what degree the mayhem will be. Just a short civil war until the winning party (Shia) subdues the rest of the sects? Or, a big ol' civil and then regional war? THAT is the only question.

And, I notice that many people don't want to voice their opinions because they KNOW that in all probability things'll get bad, but don't want to admit it. That's dishonesty. Fairly ever do these people discuss their opinion of the effect of a thousand years of rivalry match with the latest era of sectarian slaughter. As if they'd all just get along. Yeah - when the Shia killed or drove out all of the Sunni....

<Given those two factors, it seems the best thing to do is proceed with a gradual pullout of troops that is combined with a real effort to repair Iraq's infrastructure ->

I agree. But, that "gradual pullout of troops" will have to be very gradual, as the Iranian troops are able to actually be Iranians first, and not Sunni or Shia or criminals......... That could take a while.

<If we take the steps I mentioned and pull out gradually, I think the worst chaos and violence can be averted.>

Generally I agree, except to say that your use of "can" probably is too hopeful. I have a hard time imagining that in the next ten years the groups there will be able to work together nicely without just resorting to their usual slaughtering of eachother.

<Staying will be a constant provocation and source of instability, and our troops will continue to be killed as long as they are there, no matter what.>

Tragic but true. I agree 100% Kelly that the government and society is far, far far far too weak to stand up on its own against the forces form outside AND inside that want to turn each sects/groups ideal Iraq a recipe for civil war. Anyone who thinks that they'll just get along and have a successful government if we up and leave is an idiot.

<Doesn't matter what "will" (might) happen - all that is salient is the moral imperative for us to stop causing suffering, and the ethical imperative to leave that land, to forever quit attempting to own other lands,...>

And you think that if we leave somehow the suffering will end? Really? You don't think that we're putting off a civil war? Really?

>The problem is not that the Iraqi army and security forces are weak. . .it is that the Iraqi civil society itself is weak.

Horseshit. Why do you take the same point of view as neocons?

How do you apologize for what we have been doing to that country for that past five years?